The likelihood of the Democratic Party shifting leftward so far that it nominates a member of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) depends on whether they want to watch from the sidelines as another Republican President takes the oath of office or have one of their own affirming the rites of the chief executive on Jan. 20, 2029. Since the Democratic Party wants to win badly, history suggests it will opt for a more moderate ticket in 2028 rather than indulge the growing progressive nature of the party’s left wing. Depending on the results this fall, the temptation to continue the leftward march will be great. It would be a mistake, however, for the party to think that socialist victories in New York, Colorado, Wisconsin, and Michigan represent the brand nationally, or have any lasting effect on voters across the fruited plain. Most of the socialist candidates will win their seats because they are in deep blue areas of the country where voting Republican occurs as often as volcanic lightning. The statewide races in Michigan and Wisconsin will prove a point. If Dr. Abdul El-Sayed (Michigan) pulls out his victory, then this narrative could be altered. Otherwise, because successful socialist political figures are rare in the United States, especially in swing states, they seem less likely to win. There are reasons to think the party could veer too far and overreach its goal of one-payer healthcare, open borders, strict gun control, defunding of the police, the cessation of military aid to Israel, and punishing taxes for millionaires, but that stretches credulity. The factors working against that happening include new party primary rules, the expiration of the Netanyahu government in Israel, and lessons from history.
PARTY PRIMARY RULES
Facing the possibility of a rising socialist presence in the party, the establishment figures, as they did in 2016 and 2020, ensured that a candidate bearing a strong progressive agenda would not win the nomination. The DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee recently scrambled the long-held primary schedule to create a fairer representation of the states weighing in, but they also slyly measured the socialist fever in these states and deemed them sufficiently reasonable to be trusted with selecting a candidate acceptable to the nation. Beginning with South Carolina on Jan. 22, 2028, and moving successively through Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Michigan, and Virginia, by Feb. 29, 2028, Democratic voters will have chosen a front-runner and set in motion the party’s probable nominee for the fall election.
Strategically selecting these six states, the party’s establishment figures understood the threat of moving too far left and once again allowing the Republicans to nominate a candidate seen as more normal, closer to the political centre, and therefore less risky for the country. South Carolina will provide strong input from Black voters, a bloc of folks not warm to socialism. The elimination of Iowa from the first six diminishes racial favouritism. Adding New Mexico and Virginia gives a sense of regional representation. By acknowledging that they have to figure out a way of coming across as less radical, the upper counsel of the oldest political party on earth knew that another four years in the wilderness would cripple the brand, pose enormous fundraising hurdles, and threaten the party’s ability to be seen as serious in presidential elections. Appealing only to the progressive parts of the country or deep blue areas will not help them in swing states, and no credible political party finds second place acceptable in the long-term. These rule changes make it much more likely that the party will nominate a candidate who can unite the various elements of the party and still reach out to moderate voters.
BENJAMIN NETANYAHU’S FUTURE
The prime minister of Israel for most of the past 30 years and for almost all the years since 2009, Benjamin Netanyahu has become a lightning rod for opposition to Israel, its military, and its partnership with the United States, particularly President Donald Trump. One can trace the rise of militant Muslim leaders in the Democratic Party to the hatred felt towards Netanyahu and his militaristic policies in the Middle East. The rabid anti-Israeli rhetoric of these groups has found a home in the Democratic Party, though some of it has thrived in the Republican Party as well. Sadly, right-wing podcasters like Tucker Carlson, Candace Owen, and Nick Fuentes have also fed these ideas, making it less a Democratic Party problem and more of an American one. Regardless, when the vote to defund military aid to Israel was taken on July 15, 2026, 103 of the 104 who voted in favour in the House of Representatives were Democrats, even though Republican Thomas Massie of Kentucky sponsored the vote.
Prognosticators in Israel expect Netanyahu to have trouble this fall cobbling together a coalition of voters to hold power. While his party (Likud) has bounced back from its lowest polling ever, the Oct. 27 election remains tight between Netanyahu and the Yashir Party led by Israel Defence Forces (IDF) Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkoht. If the polls are accurate, the two parties would win about 22-23 seats each, and then the horse-trading would begin. Oddly, Netanyahu would have to peel away strong right-wing support to build his coalition, meaning he would have to promise to become more aggressive in defending Israel, the exact opposite of how American progressives and the dominant media portray him. Despite the facts on the ground, Democratic voters would be thrilled if Netanyahu lost. This would translate into less anti-Jewish passion and an openness to moderate candidates like Governor Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania or Senator Jon Ossoff of Georgia, both popular Democratic politicians heading for big victories this fall but also practicing Jews.
RECENT PARTY HISTORY
Beginning in 1972, the Democratic Party chose to follow a path riddled with hard electoral lessons. Nominating George McGovern, a radical progressive from South Dakota, cost the Democrats 49 states to Richard Nixon and led to one of the worst drubbings in the popular vote, with Nixon winning by over 23 per cent (60.7 per cent to 37.5 per cent). After Watergate, they squeezed out a victory when a Southerner, Jimmy Carter, edged Gerald Ford in 1976. After that, it took them until 1992 to win again when they nominated another Southern moderate, Bill Clinton of Arkansas. The party knew Bernie Sanders spelled trouble in 2016 and 2020 and rigged the process to help them get a competitive candidate. If they let things get away from the party professionals in 2028, they could end up with a ticket that repels voters in the purple states, never mind swing states that went Republican under Trump. Committed to exercising power, holding the residue of appointments and funding, Democratic Party officials will move heaven and earth to block a DSA candidate, the anti-Semitic wing, or any perceived anti-capitalist leader from hijacking the nominating system. The Democratic Party has too long a tradition of winning to decide that principles mean more than power, or that voters know more than the party’s grandees.
Dave Redekop is a retired elementary resource teacher who worked part-time at the St. Catharines Courthouse as a Registrar until being appointed Executive Director at Redeemer Bible Church in October 2023. He has worked on political campaigns since high school and attended university in South Carolina for five years, earning a Master’s in American History with a specialization in Civil Rights. Dave loves reading biographies.
