Blake Landry, Economic Research and Analysis Manager for Niagara Region, gave an update to the Planning and Economic Development Committee recently on the state of the economy in Niagara.
Landry told Councillors that the state of the economy in the area is generally doing well, despite trade pressures and global geopolitical uncertainty.
He began his presentation by noting that Niagara Region’s population has grown from roughly 509,000 in 2022 to roughly 551,000 in 2025, an increase that is outpacing the rest of the province.
In terms of inflation, Landry says it has “largely stabilized,” with inflation sitting at just under two per cent for the past year. He noted that inflation has jumped quite recently, largely due to higher oil and gas prices, to roughly 2.4 per cent, but Landry argued that comparatively, that’s quite modest.
He does, however, expect inflation to rise in the months ahead.
Niagara’s real GDP rose by about 3.2 per cent from Q1 2024 to Q1 2025, then slowed to 0.4 per cent from Q1 2025 to Q1 2026. Growth is expected to stay modest through 2026 amid ongoing uncertainty.
Employment income has also risen modestly in recent years, with Niagara’s average employment income increasing from $53,700 in 2024 to $56,800 in 2026. Still, that remains well below the Ontario average, which increased from $67,100 in 2024 to $71,500 in 2026.
Household disposable income is also rising, having increased in Niagara from $33,800 in 2024 to $37,100 in 2026. Once again, that trails the rest of the province, which saw gains from $40,300 in 2024 to $44,100 in 2026, although the gap between Niagara and the province overall remained stable.
Housing prices in Niagara, and the province overall, have declined significantly. In Niagara, the average price of a home fell from $618,700 in 2024 to $572,900 in 2026. However, the decline province-wide was even more significant, with the average home price falling from $811,000 in 2024 to $745,700 in 2026.
While this isn’t great news for homeowners, it is good news for those looking to buy homes in the area.
Retail sales are also up over the past two years, increasing from $7.52 billion in early 2024 to $7.93 billion in early 2026, which Landry says represents rather robust growth, despite some overall turbulence within that time period.
In terms of new construction, recent investment in household construction has been modest, but investment in commercial and industrial construction has been extremely robust.
The labour force participation rate in Niagara is also better than that of the province overall. The unemployment rate in Ontario is presently 7.6 per cent, compared to 6.0 per cent in Niagara. This is a change from two years ago, when Ontario’s overall unemployment rate came in at 6.3 per cent, compared to 7.5 per cent in Niagara. This indicates that the situation has improved in Niagara while deteriorating elsewhere.
Landry pointed to construction in particular as a source of job growth in recent months, as well as tourism and regional development projects.
Jay Goldberg is the Canadian Affairs Manager at the Consumer Choice Center. He previously served as the Ontario Director at the Canadian Taxpayers Federation and a policy fellow at the Munk School of Public Policy and Global Affairs. Jay holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Toronto.
