Parliament returned yesterday with a familiar question hanging over the House of Commons: how does a minority government become a majority without voters ever being asked?
Prime Minister Mark Carney is now closer than ever to finding out.
With the defection of Alberta MP Matt Jeneroux, the third Conservative to cross the floor in recent months, the Liberals now sit at 169 seats, just shy of the 172 needed for a majority. If they sweep three upcoming byelections, two in long-held Toronto Liberal ridings and one in Quebec, Carney will have the bare minimum to govern alone.
Two of those seats, University–Rosedale and Scarborough Southwest, are widely viewed as safe Liberal territory. The third is anything but.
Terrebonne, a suburban Montreal riding, was decided by a single vote in the last election before the Supreme Court annulled the result and ordered a by-election. That makes it the ultimate toss-up. Win it, and Carney likely crosses the majority threshold. Lose it, and the minority math continues.
This is not how Carney likely imagined securing a majority. He is a competitive person by reputation and by résumé. Leaders want clean wins. They want national mandates. They want an election night where the verdict is clear, a majority government. Winning via floor crossings or a razor-thin Quebec byelection is messier. But politics is about numbers, not aesthetics. If 172 MPs stand behind him, he will take it.
The debate over whether this is legitimate misses a basic constitutional fact. Canadians elect MPs, not governments. Governments survive on the confidence of the House. Carney has said he is comfortable commanding that confidence. Floor crossing is not new. It is not illegal. And every major party has benefited from it at different moments.
That does not mean voters love it. Polling over the years has shown Canadians are mixed at best on MPs switching parties mid-mandate. Cynicism is a real risk. When MPs campaign under one banner and sit under another, voters understandably ask what changed.
Jeneroux framed his decision around national unity and Carney’s leadership at Davos. Conservatives framed it as betrayal and backroom dealing. Both narratives will now be tested in public.
For Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, the timing is complicated. It is usually three strikes, and you are out in politics. Three Conservative MPs have now left his caucus. And yet, just weeks ago, Poilievre secured nearly 90 percent support in his leadership review. That kind of endorsement solidifies his position with the base.
The only real threat to his leadership would not come from members. It would come from caucus. If Conservative MPs start believing that Carney’s momentum is translating into real electoral danger for them, especially in suburban ridings, pressure builds. For now, Poilievre survives. But defections have a way of feeding narratives about control and cohesion.
There is also a structural point worth making. Majority governments raise the stakes for the next election. When one party wins a close majority, the opposition often consolidates and survives the following cycle. Minority volatility disappears. Accountability becomes clearer. If Carney does secure 172 seats, he will own the next three years outright.
One reform idea resurfacing in this debate is a cooling-off period for floor crossers. Instead of switching immediately, MPs would sit as independents for a defined period before formally joining another caucus. That would not ban floor crossing. It would slow it. It could restore some public trust while preserving parliamentary freedom.
For now, though, this is a numbers game. Carney needs three wins. Two are likely. One in Terrebonne could decide everything. And in a Parliament where one vote already overturned a result, no one should assume anything is settled.
Daniel Perry is the Director of Federal Affairs at the Council of Canadian Innovators, leading national advocacy and engagement efforts. With experience in consulting and roles at the Senate of Canada, Queen’s Park, and the Canadian Criminal Justice Association, Daniel has helped political leaders and clients across various sectors achieve their public policy goals. A frequent media contributor and seasoned campaigner, Daniel holds a Master of Political Management from Carleton University.
