In what could best be described as an off-year election-year slump, U.S. President Donald Trump and his Republican Party suffered several stinging defeats in New Jersey, Virginia, New York, and California. When his name is absent from the ballot, Trump’s party often endures resounding defeats. Coming about a year after his victory in the 2024 presidential election, this year’s results are a warning of what could happen in 2026 for the president and the Republicans. Why did the Democrats enjoy such a healthy victory this fall after a shellacking last year? Many would attribute their wins to Trump’s poor economic record, strong Democratic candidates in key races, and Trump’s extraconstitutional actions at home and abroad.
ECONOMIC RECORD
Trump came to office last January, promising the greatest economy ever. His usual exaggerations excepted, he had overseen a strong economy in his first term. After the Biden years of high inflation and slow growth, many believed Trump could ignite job creation and help Americans achieve a better standard of living. Many of those voters were minorities who, for the first time in their lives, cast a vote for a Republican presidential candidate. They chose to return home this year and many voted Democratic. If that happens in ‘26 or ‘28 Trump will be welcoming a Democrat (if he decides to politely hand off the presidency this time) on his way out of office. Since his swearing in, Trump has attempted to use tariffs to build a great economy, allowed foreign policy issues to distract him, and spent far too much time trolling his opponents on Truth Social. The president is free to use his time as he chooses, but consequences are borne in the elections that follow.
The price of food and a sense that his tariffs are not accomplishing much were tied to stubborn unemployment numbers and poor economic growth. His Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, even suggested parts of the economy were in recession. Long ago, presidential advisors established the importance of pocketbook issues for voters. When people are asked about the top concerns they have going into the voting booth, most will speak to their worries about job growth, the cost of everyday items, and whether their leaders seem to be engaged with what common folks are enduring to pay the bills and make ends meet. If polls tell us anything, Trump has lost the thread. The MAGA crowd can dismiss them as mainstream media hogwash, but when they show up on ballots, it cannot be ignored. On Nov. 4, in the few states that held elections, voters sent Trump a clear warning about what may happen in the Congressional elections next year if the economy does not become his priority.
DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES
This year’s crop of Democratic candidates proved to be strong because their message appealed to voters. To be sure, most of these states were blue or blue-leaning locations. New Jersey has long been a safe Democratic bastion, though Chris Christie won the governorship there in 2009 and 2013. The state will often opt for a Republican after a couple of Democratic terms, but not in 2025. Mikie Sherrill, a former Navy helicopter pilot, federal prosecutor, and savvy politician, easily defeated her Republican opponent despite expectations of a tight race. Sherrill will likely move into the vice-presidential consideration pool for 2028 and has a bright future in Democratic politics. In Virginia, Abigail Spanberger won the governorship back from the Republicans, defeating Winsome Earle-Sears handily and sweeping the Democrats back into all the statewide offices in the Commonwealth. She, too, will be looked at as a rising star and could end up on a national ticket in the near future.
New York City produced the most controversial race. Two Democrats from different wings of the party faced off, and Zohran Mamdani, a Democratic Socialist committed to very leftist economic policies, defeated former governor Andrew Cuomo, whose independent candidacy probably ended his electoral career. Mamdani, despite being labelled radical for embracing ideas like government-run grocery stores, higher taxation, and defunding the police, appealed to many New York voters because of his populist economic message and his ability to communicate his positions effectively. Finally, in California, Governor Gavin Newsom took Trump on directly and was rewarded with a huge approval to redraw congressional districts in favour of Democratic candidates. Trump had asked Texas to help him gain new districts. The five that will likely be added to the Democrats next year will neutralize the ones the GOP hoped to win in Texas. Pennsylvania voters returning state supreme court justices back to office also speaks to the Democratic Party’s success in a jurisdiction thought to be trending red. All of this spells trouble for the Trump legacy and the Republican Party.
EXTRACONSTITUTIONAL ACTIONS
The acolytes of Trump in MAGA will never accept the fact that the president has a lot of hairbrained schemes, but that does not change the facts. Trump’s efforts to benefit from Bitcoin sales remind everyone that he represents a lot of ideas that should not be associated with conservatism or constitutional government. He undoubtedly has done some things that many people like. His efforts to reinstate well-established gender identification were happily received. Working for peace in the Middle East and elsewhere earned him kudos. And getting the border under control will always be a winning issue in national elections. But how he gets some of these things done, or his willingness to use his authority recklessly, creates many more problems than they solve.
Why would Trump want to station military personnel in blue states when he knows the governor and the city in question do not want these troops? Yes, doing this in the federal city of Washington, D.C. sits within his purview. But not Chicago, New York, or Portland, strongly blue cities in blue states that have not requested these soldiers. Trump’s actions speak to his misunderstanding of the Constitution, the presidency, and his authority. The unfortunate outcome will not be far off. A Democratic president will hold the White House again. When they do, Trump will have established precedents that will cause Republicans to howl. Or how about attacking boats from Venezuela without any Congressional input? Or even formal briefings as to why these boats are so dangerous to national security. Americans are expected to trust the president before questioning his actions. That may be good enough for his supporters in MAGA world, but that falls short of satisfaction for Democrats, Independents, and constitutionalists who still reside in the GOP. Mr. Trump’s actions are setting him up to possibly defy a Supreme Court ruling or create a justification for a future Democratic president to act outside the Constitution in the name of an emergency.
The last matter involves the use of the filibuster. If the Republicans follow Trump’s advice and eliminate the filibuster to end the government shutdown, it will ensure that the potential for left-wing mischief will become a certainty. Democrats will be able to add Democratic states, increase Supreme Court membership, and potentially declare a climate emergency requiring tariffs. It would allow them to address all the issues they have wanted to since the party turned radically left under Barack Obama and then Joe Biden. Trump may recover from this slump, and his successor may be a Republican in 2028. If not, and he continues down this path, expect a very steep shift to an activist government once Trump is gone.
Dave Redekop is a retired elementary resource teacher who worked part-time at the St. Catharines Courthouse as a Registrar until being appointed Executive Director at Redeemer Bible Church in October 2023. He has worked on political campaigns since high school and attended university in South Carolina for five years, earning a Master’s in American History with a specialization in Civil Rights. Dave loves reading biographies.
