Next week, Mark Wiseman will take up residence in Washington as Canada’s new ambassador to the United States, stepping into a relationship that looks nothing like it did even a few years ago.
What was once a relatively comfortable posting with a close ally has become a daily stress test. Managing the Canada-U.S. file now resembles a rollercoaster that makes the Leviathan at Wonderland look like the merry-go-round. Tariffs appear and disappear. Rhetoric escalates without warning. And long-standing assumptions about trust and predictability no longer apply.
Wiseman arrives with a resume designed for complexity. A background in law and global finance, senior roles at the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board and BlackRock, and a close working relationship with Prime Minister Mark Carney. That proximity matters. Carney’s April election victory leaned heavily on his promise to stabilize the U.S. relationship and stand up to U.S. President Donald Trump. Voters were told that Canada needed an experienced hand to navigate a volatile White House.
So far, that volatility has only increased.
Tariffs remain firmly in place. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has been clear that Washington has no intention of eliminating them, even if Canada were to reciprocate. Key sectors including autos, steel, aluminum, and lumber continue to absorb the damage, while Trump openly questions the value of CUSMA and flirts with letting it expire or breaking it apart.
The economic risk is not theoretical. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem warned last week that losing preferential access under CUSMA would almost certainly push Canada into recession. While the central bank does not view that outcome as its base case, the warning hangs over every trade conversation now taking place in Washington. For a government that has made economic credibility central to its political identity, the stakes are enormous.
Carney has attempted to frame Trump’s latest tariff threats as negotiating tactics ahead of the mandatory CUSMA review. Yet even Canada’s outgoing ambassador, Kirsten Hillman, has acknowledged the reality: it is no longer clear whether Trump actually wants to preserve the agreement at all. His messaging shifts depending on the audience, the day, and the leverage he believes he has at the moment.
Adding another layer of complexity, Conservative MP Jamil Jivani recently travelled to Washington to meet with senior U.S. officials, including Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Jivani described the meetings as productive and said he left hopeful. The trip, however, sparked confusion within his own caucus and highlighted how fragmented Canada’s engagement with Washington has become.
Wiseman steps into this role with little margin for error. The trade architecture that has underpinned Canada’s economy for decades is under review, political patience in Washington is thin, and expectations in Ottawa are sky high.
This is not a ceremonial assignment. It is a test of whether Canada can still manage its most important relationship when the old rules no longer apply.
Daniel Perry is the Director of Federal Affairs at the Council of Canadian Innovators, leading national advocacy and engagement efforts. With experience in consulting and roles at the Senate of Canada, Queen’s Park, and the Canadian Criminal Justice Association, Daniel has helped political leaders and clients across various sectors achieve their public policy goals. A frequent media contributor and seasoned campaigner, Daniel holds a Master of Political Management from Carleton University.
