The federal NDP hopes to crown a new leader in Winnipeg this spring. What that will mean for Prime Minister Mark Carney, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, and the NDP itself depends on who gets elected. After partnering with former prime minister Justin Trudeau for several years, the NDP almost disappeared last spring when Carney drained their voter base. U.S. President Donald Trump frightened so many old socialists that they ran to the Liberal Party for cover, fearing that a Conservative government would either cave to Trump or be incapable of putting up a strong enough fight on behalf of Canada. Former NDP leader Jagmeet Singh’s reward for supporting one of the worst-run governments in the history of the English-speaking people was annihilation. He got off easy. He resigned and moved on to other pursuits, namely joining the roster of Speakers Spotlight, where he plans to share some of his lessons from 15 years in politics. Singh has also returned to competitive Brazilian jiu-jitsu, competing in the over-30-year-old category in the Niagara Open and winning gold. The chances of a political revival for him are the same as the party he led into the desert. Despite any challenges, it is important to acknowledge that the New Democratic Party has cultivated a devoted base of supporters spanning multiple generations throughout Canada. The party has held power in several provinces and currently governs British Columbia and Manitoba. Is it possible to bring the party back to life? Who has the best chance of completing the job? How would this affect the future of the other party leaders?
NDP REVIVAL
Anyone under the assumption that the federal NDP cannot make a comeback needs to understand a few things about politics, specifically Canadian politics. A significant segment of the population, about 20 per cent, is amenable to voting for the NDP, a trend maintained over the preceding half-century. The party’s success has ebbed and flowed, dependent on various factors from who led the party to internal events or external threats. If Avi Lewis, grandson of one former NDP federal leader and son of the sainted Stephen Lewis, former head of the Ontario NDP and onetime Canadian ambassador to the United Nations, wins the leadership, he could ignite renewed interest in the party. Lewis, a modern-day firebrand, often makes controversial statements that create furor and outrage at business gatherings or scare corporate interests who don’t want him anywhere near power. The last thing these executives want to see is Lewis and the NDP bargaining with a Carney-led government to pass legislation or help it survive a confidence vote. Lewis, however, possesses modern communication skills. As a journalist and filmmaker, he knows how to produce short, effective soundbites that explain complicated ideas quickly and effectively. Lewis has raised about half the money brought into NDP coffers during the leadership race, his campaign has attracted new members across Canada, and his name and reputation are national. He has the potential to revive the party’s dormant supporters. The other contenders could spark interest, but Lewis’s pedigree suggests he has the best chance of doing so. In the end, the NDP policies remain steady. They want to speak for the underdog, stand up to the moneyed crowd, and protect the environment for future generations. There have always been people in Canada interested in a party committed to these causes. A savvy, serious, and competent messenger could bring the NDP back from the brink and create headaches for both Carney and Poilievre.
WOULD AN NDP REVIVAL HURT MARK CARNEY?
Conventional wisdom suggests that Carney’s chances of winning a majority government would decline substantially if the NDP vote returns to historical levels (between 13-20%). This could be true, but a school of thought making the rounds (at least from this author) wonders if Carney has already decided to bypass the NDP vote and head directly to the core issue, saturating the centre. Carney has become less patient and welcoming of progressives the longer he serves. His globalist credentials intact after Davos, and his latest change of policy on EV mandates announced, the prime minister can now continue to redress issues long ignored under the previous Liberal regime. His charm offensive underway in Ontario and Alberta, Carney feels comfortable with his base in the East, Quebec, and BC. He would like to secure a majority government, but he does not need a shellacking or overwhelming victory. If he can win 180-185 seats, he will transform Canada into his image over the next decade. The former banker will do that with big wins in Ontario and inroads in Alberta. He will count on his Maritime vote, a strong showing in Quebec, and enough seats in the other provinces to take down the Conservatives. Carney has already shown with his floor-crossing strategy that he wants centre-right operatives, not socialists or progressives, populating his government. Whatever happens with the NDP will not concern Carney as much as many think, at least if his actions to date matter.
WOULD POILIEVRE WELCOME AN NDP RENAISSANCE?
Again, many pundits would say the CPC leader wants an NDP renaissance, anticipating electoral benefits from the socialists’ rise in fortunes. That would fit the script, but it may not happen that way. For one thing, Poilievre has worked hard to earn the trust of private sector unions, tradespeople, and many new Canadians. Anything that pushes back against that narrative could hurt his ability to make up business-oriented voters lost to Carney’s suddenly corporate-friendly Liberals. If the NDP’s outlook brightens, the Conservatives should not get overconfident. They will need to inspect those numbers to ensure the recovered NDP support does not mean the Conservative Party has lost its edge. “Boots not suits” sounds like a great way to build a new voter base previously uninterested in the Conservative Party. That only works if the populism of the right does not get side-swiped by the populism on the left. The fact that the NDP and Conservatives are seeking new coalitions of voters says a lot about the comfortable place the Liberal Party enjoys in the electoral process. They can shift around in the centre, play more to the corporate side when necessary, and more to the progressives as the times demand. Conservative Party members should resist the urge to feel overly confident because of a recent surge in interest surrounding the NDP and Lewis.
Political destinies can change quickly. On the federal scene, the Liberal Party of Canada has long held the advantage. Last year’s switcheroo from Trudeau to Carney proved one instance. If the NDP reclaims much of its lost support, it should surprise no one that the Liberals somehow benefit. Not at this juncture in our history. Not with a popular prime minister facing off against public enemy number one, Donald J. Trump, President of the United States. All bets are off, especially if Lewis becomes the new face of the federal NDP.
Dave Redekop is a retired elementary resource teacher who worked part-time at the St. Catharines Courthouse as a Registrar until being appointed Executive Director at Redeemer Bible Church in October 2023. He has worked on political campaigns since high school and attended university in South Carolina for five years, earning a Master’s in American History with a specialization in Civil Rights. Dave loves reading biographies.
