Canada’s odd couple is impacting municipal races in Ontario

The bromance between Prime Minister Mark Carney and Premier Doug Ford caught many Canadians off guard in early 2025 when Carney first won the Liberal leadership, became prime minister, and then called an election he eventually won. Ontario’s Progressive Conservative premier had never been mistaken for ‌someone who would keep company with a globe-trotting banker. Regardless, the timing of Carney’s rise and President Donald Trump’s return to the White House brought the pair together. This unlikely partnership now explains why municipal races in Ontario, once non-partisan, have suddenly become battlegrounds between those on the left and those on the right. Rather than being heavily influenced by party loyalties, the rivalries mainly stem from contrasting philosophical and ideological viewpoints. Both men seek to deliver government services more efficiently to reduce costs and manage tax burdens. They prefer quick decision-making, absent the deliberation of legislative bodies that impede policy implementation. Finally, they are both extremely familiar with the American business model and see benefits for it in Canada, even though they both revile Trump’s tariffs and anti-Canadian rhetoric. 

GOVERNMENT EFFICIENCY

Carney would avoid any effort to associate himself with threatened regional amalgamations across Ontario. Still, he and Ford agree that major city centres provide an essential backdrop for any successful government. Smaller communities are important players, but supporting characters. For both the premier and the prime minister, development creates opportunities, which translate into economic growth, investment, and incentives for business leaders to risk capital in Canada and Ontario. This outlook threatens progressives who don’t like new investors coming in and setting up shop, competing with union jobs, often hiring non-union workforces and altering the relationship between workers and parties on the left. Ford’s inroads into the private-sector union vote have manifested in three Ontario elections, explaining why he has cobbled together business voters and tradespeople into a coalition that works for the PCs and has kept him premier for almost a decade. Reducing the number of politicians has been a central pillar of Ford’s effort to amalgamate smaller communities into larger ones, enabling the creation of larger, more specialized health centres and hospitals and redirecting funds once spent on maintaining old buildings and staff towards facilities that provide amenities to address needs in a focused, state-of-the-art complex. Carney is simultaneously interested in Build Canada Strong because he wants Canadians to approve major industrial projects. He wants to cut red tape for ports, mines, and energy corridors by enforcing a “one project, one review, one year” standard to accelerate construction timelines. Those municipal leaders who are suspicious of Ford yet embrace Carney are drinking from the same fountain. The latter has seduced them; the former has commanded them. They may prefer seduction, but the results are the same. 

STREAM-LINED DECISION MAKING

Perhaps for different reasons, but with the same intent, Carney and Ford like the authoritative model. Since Ford identifies as a conservative, his attempt to sidestep legislative consultation will draw stronger criticism. Still, the prime minister loathes listening to those who would slow his projects, demand studies, or insist on deeper reviews. They both want to see initiatives move ahead with the least resistance. To ensure this happens in Ontario, Ford has demanded that communities reduce the number of politicians and has sought to combine smaller communities into larger ones to improve timelines for getting new ventures underway. The coin of the realm in Ford’s Ontario and Carney’s Canada includes presenting a friendly business environment. It goes hand in hand with fast permit approvals, breaking ground with shovels, and crews on site doing the work. This has put progressives on the defensive in Ontario and helps explain why so many on the left want to elect mayors and councils that will obstruct Ford. In Niagara, this has been playing out in several communities, but the results are mixed. Until every town and city counts its votes, no one will know the verdict. However, most major communities appear likely to retain their council leaders, except in Welland and Niagara-on-the-Lake, where a new mayor will take office. It is not hard to find progressives, socialists, and staunch green advocates throughout the region who would like to elect mayors that share their ideological bent, perhaps more so in some municipalities than others. However, if most incumbents receive a fresh mandate from their voters, the premier will have allies in key positions, which will help him, and Carney to perhaps a lesser extent, in advancing targeted projects in the development portfolio and beyond.  

AMERICAN BUSINESS EXPERIENCE

No one should underestimate the valuable, shared experiences that Carney and Ford have had in the American business world. Ford spent two decades living in the United States as head of the American arm of the Ford family business, Deco Labels and Flexible Packaging Limited. When Ford’s father joined Mike Harris’s team at Queen’s Park in 1995, his sons, Doug and Randy, stayed on to keep the business running. Doug spearheaded the family’s expansion into the United States in 1999, opening a 45,000-square-foot branch in Chicago. The addition was a success, but when Ford tried to expand to New Jersey in 2008, things did not go as well. Regardless, Ford had a taste of life in America and developed an everlasting admiration for the American people, the entrepreneurial spirit, and the hospitality shown to him and his family on repeated occasions. Carney lived his American life in the shadow of much larger business entities but reflects many of the same ideas. Carney, a 1987 Harvard University graduate with a Bachelor of Arts in Economics, is the first prime minister to earn his undergraduate degree from an American university. Carney spent 13 years at Goldman Sachs and many years in major financial hubs such as New York and Boston. Two of Carney’s four children live permanently in the United States, and his wife, Diana, worked closely with the political risk firm Eurasia. His personal wealth remains largely tied to the U.S. market. Public reviews of his financial holdings show that 91 per cent of his blind trust portfolio, including 567 separate corporate entities, are under American ownership. A 15-page list of investments associated with Carney’s holdings itemizes such massive American corporations as Tesla, Alphabet (Google), Boeing, Amazon, Lockheed Martin, Walmart, and Fox. 

CONCLUSION

Voters will go to the polls on Oct. 26 or earlier, perhaps thinking that they will vote into power someone who lives down the street, owns a local business, or perhaps delivers a needed service or practices an important trade. Thinking that has merit. However, forces are operating at different levels of government, within the union movement, and as part of a broader attempt to respond to the American administration’s pressure on Canada to develop its resources, negotiate a trade agreement, and align with Trump’s vision of a new golden age. The Carney-Ford alliance defies logic at first glance. Greater scrutiny exposes why and how it works. Both men see the finish line and have invested too much to part ways. Niagara’s communities will first feel the effects of this when the returns are announced on Oct. 26. Thanks to Canada’s political odd couple, voters are more motivated to have their say in local elections. How they respond to this unusual alliance—whether they know about it or not—will be worth watching.