Baseball manager Leo “The Lip” Durocher titled his autobiography Nice Guys Finish Last, recalling his famous comment about a rival team in last place. It would appear that our prime minister, riding high in the polls and almost as popular as swimming pools in July, follows Durocher’s advice. If we are to make anything of the reports in two of Canada’s largest newspapers, then Prime Minister Mark Carney may present a smiling visage while barking out orders with demanding authority. According to summaries of these articles, Carney centralizes power, dismisses MPs’ concerns offhandedly, and even yells to speed up results. What does this say about Carney, his leadership, and the long-term prospects for his government?
Liberal MPs owe him their loyalty
Brian Lilley of Sun News thinks Carney has his caucus over a barrel. They know that without his arrival on the scene, most would be working in a new gig with far less influence, far greater anonymity, and far from power. Most were resigned to a Poilievre majority. Not only did Carney save their jobs, but he also saved Canada from the clutches of the evil orange man to the south. This kind of leverage creates a great deal of loyalty, and Carney is not shy about asserting his command. As a matter of fact, when his MPs come to him with complaints, he turns on them, asking for solutions, dressing them down, and displaying notable irritation. He expects them to get in line and understand that a successful government relies on action, not debate. If it takes building a pipeline to improve the nation’s economy, then get busy building. Climate concerns, consultations, and caucus questions need to take a backseat. As Lilley comments, the Liberals are in a majority government with the wind at their back; what happens if things get more difficult and the seas get rough? Carney can push his members around right now, but these things can come back to haunt a leader. Brian Mulroney was famously kind to his MPs, and when things turned ugly at the end, they stood by him. Contrastingly, the self-important Justin Trudeau helplessly watched as his caucus fled like rats on a sinking ship when his popularity vanished. Carney may be counting on a loyal band of followers to stay in line; he may even like former president Lyndon Johnson’s idea of devotion, who, when asked about a staffer’s allegiance, said, “I don’t want loyalty. I want loyalty! I want him to kiss my a– in Macy’s window at high noon and tell me it smells like roses…” Whether Carney’s excesses have reached the Johnson level remains to be seen, but he projects great expectations and sets the bar high.
Caucus management
Facing no threats to their rule and significantly in front of their competitors in all the polls, Carney still had to deal with a letter from 14 of his MPs in late April who spoke out against environmental policy backsliding, concessions to Alberta, and the party’s abandonment of what they called core principles. The MPs suggested Carney’s and the government’s credibility on climate change would be questioned if the government continued to back away from prior commitments to an oil sands emissions cap, a consumer carbon tax, and an electric vehicle mandate. They also protested the agreement signed with Premier Danielle Smith of Alberta that accommodates a new West Coast pipeline by 2027 and slows the rate of increase on industrial carbon taxes. Finally, they strongly endorsed a return to clean electricity regulations, emphasizing again that the party’s brand could be jeopardized if climate change policy gets short-shifted. The machinations that secured a majority for Carney should not be forgotten. As stated, many MPs owe their seat to Carney’s arrival, and now there are several who have crossed the floor to join the bandwagon. Will these newcomers, having once turned coat, hesitate to abandon Carney or his government if things unravel? He will also have to deal with those who are now isolated out of cabinet in a majority government. In a minority setting, they may have been more careful, hoping for a promotion. Warren Kinsella, former counsellor to Jean Chrétien, warned in a Sun News commentary that with things settled, Carney will have some who feel they have nothing to lose popping off and possibly becoming big shots as media sources. Carney’s caucus management depends entirely on his firm hand of authority. The evidence suggests it could become lonely at the top if his policies and decisions do not bear fruit.
Trump similarities
After 18 months of media adoration because he stands in stark contrast to U.S. President Donald Trump, some realize that Carney and Trump have far more in common than many in the national press have been willing to admit. Both men come from a business background, and both had very little experience in politics before taking command. Carney’s defenders will argue that he has extensive government experience as a Bank Governor in two countries and has enjoyed consulting with his two predecessors for some time. Unfortunately, being a government employee does not equate to embodying the Canadian people in a representative body like the House of Commons. Carney’s personality differs greatly from Trump’s, but his leadership style is similar. The condescension both men have for women has not served either well. Trump uses stronger words in public, but Carney famously waved off then-foreign affairs minister Mélanie Joly on the floor of the House of Commons. Footage of the incident went viral, showing Carney dismissively waving his hand to brush her off without making eye contact as she tried to speak to him. His penchant for doing this to female reporters rivals Trump’s disrespect for women. Carney has confronted Rosemary Barton, he has had tiffs with Stephanie Levitz of the Globe, and snaps at his staffers. He rules like a CEO and possesses an authoritarian streak that characterizes Trump’s leadership. This will not wear well if things go awry. Beyond that, Carney’s experiences and holdings in the U.S. reflect more his American-oriented business interests, again, not unlike President Trump. The prime minister’s personal investments are upwards of 91 per cent in American entities, and the list of his associations literally fills an AI Google search. Carney is enjoying one of the longest honeymoons in Canadian political history. Ironically, he has Trump to thank for Canadians’ trust, even as he reveals himself to be like Trump in substance, if not in style.
Outlook
Carney could not be called a “people person” by any stretch. Still, his popularity remains high, and most Liberals will forgive any sin other than low poll numbers. He stands around 45 per cent nationally, ranks highly in Ontario, and if he gets a pipeline in Alberta, could grow his numbers there. If CUSMA fails, separatist movements gain steam, and the mid-terms sideline Trump, Carney could find himself in deep water. Events will ultimately determine his fate, but he need not fear losing because he was too nice.
Dave Redekop is a retired elementary resource teacher who worked part-time at the St. Catharines Courthouse as a Registrar until being appointed Executive Director at Redeemer Bible Church in October 2023. He has worked on political campaigns since high school and attended university in South Carolina for five years, earning a Master’s in American History with a specialization in Civil Rights. Dave loves reading biographies.
