Former U.S. President Dwight Eisenhower once said, “Politics ought to be the part-time profession of every citizen who would protect the rights and privileges of free people.” Considering the meteor-like rise to power of Prime Minister Mark Carney, notwithstanding his fulsome resume, many wonder if he will hang around once the going gets tough.
One could suggest Carney foresaw a period in opposition before gaining control in the political constellation he entered. Instead, forces conspired to present him with an opening that seemed tailor-made for him. His opponents on the right eagerly built a populist foundation without noticing that the left flank was faltering badly. Jagmeet Singh’s decision to double down on the Trudeau government’s worst predilections associated the NDP with a government so unpopular that its ministers openly rebelled. Carney’s arrival just as U.S. President Donald Trump returned to the White House left Canadians with a binary choice. With the socialists sidelined, Carney had a clear field to win the government. The Conservatives got a respectable 41 per cent of the vote, but the Liberals’ recapture of NDP votes secured them the victory and a near-majority, making Carney the prime minister much earlier than thought when he launched his campaign.
This becomes interesting when the next election occurs. Carney faces many toils and troubles ahead. Trump’s huffing and puffing about a 51st state, his threat of tariffs, and the concern on behalf of many older Canadians that Canada had to have an experienced hand for the ship of state worked in Carney’s favour. Dealing with Trump, however, presents a distinct problem. Carney’s elbows-up approach does not work as easily as promised. The American economy stands as a colossus on the world stage, and Canadians will have to come to terms with this reality. Talking tough about national independence serves the nation’s psyche well. It means very little when confronted with a country ten times larger and the ability to overwhelm on every front. Canadians could change their minds about Carney if they see him as ill-equipped to manage Trump. If that happens, Poilievre’s new Conservative coalition will probably hold while Carney’s left wing could drift home, leaving the Liberals very vulnerable in the next federal election.
Supposing Poilievre can pick up 30 seats, he will form a majority government. Accepting that occurs in late 2027 or early 2028, Mark Carney will probably fold up his tent and be off to his next undertaking. If the Liberals hold the Conservatives to a minority government, Carney will find that unsustainable. He may hang around if he thinks the government will fall quickly and he could claim back the prime ministership, but short of that, he will head for the exits. Carney does not like playing second fiddle, and when the music stops on this government, Carney’s seat will probably be on the opposition benches. If that occurs, Canada’s answer to global leadership will go looking for a new gig.
What could make him stay longer? A new mandate in 2028, and that would be the curtain call. The former Bank of Canada Governor won’t want to remain in Parliament managing his caucus on daily issues. He may like the prestige of the office, but the grinding aspects of day-to-day political work will become a bore. Carney may seek a corporate role, maybe in the U.S., probably in New York City (assuming the mayor hasn’t made it unappealing).
Some enter politics to make a permanent impact. Others hope to be the answer to a short-term problem. Carney has consistently shown ambition. Having reached the highest elective office in Canadian politics, he will have nowhere to go but down. If he had started as a Liberal leader in opposition, he might have committed to a longer career in politics. As events unfolded, Carney’s path cleared, and he had top billing. Unless his habits change, he will soon pack his bags, clean out his office, and accept a well-compensated position to head a strong financial conglomerate in the United States. How fitting would it be for Trump and Carney to return to private life about the same time and pick up their business relationship? Canadians who believed the drivel about elbows up never knew Mark Carney or his background. They never checked on what he was doing while he was being courted to replace the anemic Justin Trudeau. Did they consider that the man the Liberals anointed might come from the same circles as the American president? If they did, and if they thought this would serve as an advantage, they’d be stuck holding the bag of over-promised hype and under-delivered action.
In the next few weeks, Carney will either surrender to Trump’s demands and face the political and economic reality that Trump holds the cards, certainly in trade deals in North America. Or he will attempt to save face and put Canadian jobs at risk, hand the country back to the regulatory tyrants who wanted to obstruct Canadians from a higher standard of living and put us at further risk of becoming exactly what Trump threatened before the spring campaign. Carney’s background tells us he knows when to fold and when to hold. With global deals involving Trump being furiously negotiated, Canada’s prime minister will succumb to the pressure. In short order, he will face serious criticism from the leftists in his caucus, particularly in Quebec. The NDP, presumably with a new leader by 2027, will soon recover support. Polls will favour a Conservative government, and there will be no knight in shining armour to save the Liberals this time. Trump will be old news, and Carney’s brief stay in the sun will end. His departure will occur almost as swiftly as his appearance. Canada’s latest prime minister sees his role as one intended to bridge a gap, nurse a nation through a turbulent time, and fulfill a lifelong objective. Once he believes mission accomplished, he will return to his first love, the field of finance, banking, and healthy compensation.
Dave Redekop is a retired elementary resource teacher who worked part-time at the St. Catharines Courthouse as a Registrar until being appointed Executive Director at Redeemer Bible Church in October 2023. He has worked on political campaigns since high school and attended university in South Carolina for five years, earning a Master’s in American History with a specialization in Civil Rights. Dave loves reading biographies.
