The ever-changing circumstances in Ottawa remind all Canadians that the government we elected in April reflects the belief that Prime Minister Mark Carney holds the cards. Canadians believe he can navigate the choppy waters of a Trump-oriented world because he is a global economic leader, and decisions are made capriciously every day. Has he earned that trust? The jury is still out. His calm demeanour contrasts with U.S. President Donald Trump’s endless diatribes against enemies real and imagined. His cool exterior sits well with many who prefer a temperate leader who embodies control, thoughtfulness and patience. Carney appears to be playing a long game, not one built on insults or gamesmanship. No one, including Carney, knows if this will work.
The prime minister’s brilliance must go beyond politics to benefit Canadians, establish a lasting legacy, and accept that many intelligent people have struggled in high office. Big brains provide a good starting point, but they do not always guarantee successful results. The job of national leaders has grown complicated over the years. Where once they provided leadership of a cabinet, oversaw the making of policy, and administered a government, they now must also do several other jobs. The twenty-first-century prime minister must master technology, including social media. He must communicate sympathy for those facing challenges and an ability to show care for his constituents amid the daily life of raising a family, earning a paycheque, and making ends meet. In effect, a prime minister today cannot simply rely on his knowledge, training, or ideas. Today’s leaders must possess and nurture their emotional quotient. Leaders who don’t do that won’t gain favour, appear robotic, and may quickly lose touch. As the year comes to a close and Carney approaches his first year as prime minister, what challenges await him? Keeping his promises to develop resources highlights his priorities.
Unless he plays to Canada’s strengths, the economy will fail, workers will not be productive, and the promise of his start will lead to a disappointing conclusion. Carney must also get a handle on immigration. If this issue stays atop the headlines, it means healthcare, housing, education, and social services are being overextended. Finally, Carney has to pull off the equivalent of a political miracle. He must construct a coalition of business liberals, pulling the correct number of Conservatives while preventing progressive liberals from defecting to the NDP. Concurrently, he must not let voters go to the Bloc, as that risks a majority. He will have to perform a high-wire act worthy of the Wallendas.
KEEPING PROMISES ON THE RESOURCE FRONT
Carney has said the right things about these matters, has even signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Alberta to build a pipeline, but doubts remain. His caucus is split. If the Conservatives had simply asked for the vote last week to be about the whole MOU, the cracks in the Liberal caucus would have emerged. As fragile as his hold on parliament remains, this issue alone could blow up into an election Carney may or may not want. The truth is likely found in Carney’s efficient removal of Trudeau-era members, especially those critical of inaction on climate change. Once he can safely install loyalists, he can more aggressively reshape the Liberal Party into the business-friendly entity he envisions.
Suspicions remain that he also has significant connections to global parties desiring climate change policies that can’t coexist with resource development. Carney, a well-known international banker, appears to support climate standards debated at summits. Exactly how he can meld Canada’s resource development and those treaties together defines his dilemma. He has already lost (or did he drive him out?) Steven Guilbeault, his Quebec lieutenant. Many members of the Trudeau circle won because Carney became leader. They owe him their jobs, but they are not philosophically cut from the same cloth. Retiring these members or providing them with plum patronage positions will be the only way Carney will get traction on the resource front. He will have to attract business-friendly blue liberals who are ready to support his vision and get to work on implementing it. He does not have time to wait for studies, long-term negotiations with environmental groups, or deals that are constantly under review with Indigenous groups. His success in making this happen will be a significant factor in whether he can win another term or become a footnote in Canadian history.
IMMIGRATION GATEKEEPING
Because of the Liberal Party of Canada’s standing on immigration matters, it possesses the ability to implement some practical restrictions without being criticized for xenophobic or racist sentiments. The increase in immigrants arriving in Canada over the last decade is well-documented. The pressure on a variety of government-run programs has created frustration for long-term Canadians and newer Canadians who recently became citizens. Most Canadians favour immigration like they favour chocolate cake. The right amount suits the purpose, but too much creates problems.
Carney understands that immigration should address the country’s needs. The process should be done wisely to achieve targeted results. The Harper model served the country well, and Carney has instincts that would lead him to the same conclusions. If Carney can reshape his caucus in his image, he will again have a free hand to make the changes he wants. This will force the opposition to take more extreme stands or be in the uncomfortable position of having to support the government more often than not. Becoming a progressive conservative party will not sit well with many Liberals, but Carney embodies these ideas. Just as former prime minister Justin Trudeau rode the progressive rail hard, expect Carney to move the Liberals back to the centre and respond to the mood of the nation. He will do this, sounding compassionate to the crowds favouring immigration, and talking tough to the folks who want a clampdown. If Carney is true to himself, expect the Liberals to make the Conservatives irrelevant, leaving the centre theirs to claim.
POLITICAL TIGHTROPE ACT
In the midst of these political maneuvers, the calculus that Carney proposes would impress Niccolo Machiavelli. Machiavelli said that the end justified the means when exercising power. Carney’s big brain tells him he has to deal with his opposition in political life as he did in business. He has the confidence to believe he can outsmart most people, has better ideas, and knows what the people of Canada need better than they know. Expect Carney to sell liberals, conservatives, and progressives on the notion that only he has the answers. For Liberals, that means abandoning principle for power, something they have done for most of their existence. The Liberal Party has become synonymous with the natural governing party. They believe their brand assures Canadians of the best government because, more than others, they know what best suits the nation.
Can he pull it off? Can he absorb enough progressive conservatives to offset losses to the NDP and Greens? With apologies to Bob Dylan, the answer may be written in the wind, but Carney would like to give it a go. Carney’s long tenure in leadership roles has led him to conclude that he can pull it off. His answers to the nation’s problems are superior. His plan supersedes the average worker’s understanding of complex problems. As a technocrat, he possesses the elite skills required to solve these entrenched difficulties. It takes a large amount of hubris, a huge dose of pride, and the right mixture of arrogance and pomposity, but Carney manifests enough of each to think he can solve this equation like a banking issue. His big brain has taken him far, but one day it may lead him into no-man’s-land, a figurative reference to where many politicians’ careers have ended because their reach exceeded their grasp.
Dave Redekop is a retired elementary resource teacher who worked part-time at the St. Catharines Courthouse as a Registrar until being appointed Executive Director at Redeemer Bible Church in October 2023. He has worked on political campaigns since high school and attended university in South Carolina for five years, earning a Master’s in American History with a specialization in Civil Rights. Dave loves reading biographies.
