One of the most interesting juxtapositions from the recent federal election results is the prospect of Prime Minister Mark Carney achieving a political rarity. Having won a contest many would have thought unlikely just months ago, Carney must thread a needle between problems that appear unalterably headed for a collision. As the leader of the Liberal Party of Canada, Carney has projected a temperament of an old-time progressive conservative while possessing a mixed record of globalist ideas and climate change-oriented policies. How he intends to implement the “build, baby, build” mantra he used at his campaign night rally amidst the remnants of the Trudeau-era green machine demands attention. The balancing act he proposes to attempt will determine whether he enjoys a durable period atop the Canadian political landscape or a brief one. What are his prospects?
First, we will get a noticeable clue when the newly elected prime minister announces his cabinet. His first cabinet, a caretaker one at best, included 23 members. Many were familiar faces from the Trudeau years. Canadians will see some of his priorities when Carney and his team are sworn in later this month. If people like Steven Guilbeault, Chrystia Freeland, and Dominic LeBlanc hold important portfolios, then a rerun of the Trudeau era with a corporate face may be underway. It will be hard for Carney to push an agenda focusing on resource development, economic growth, and increasing productivity with members from the left wing of a centre-left party. Guilbeault is reason enough to swallow hard, but adding Freeland, Leblanc, Mélanie Joly, Karina Gould, or some of the Trudeau loyalists will serve as an anchor before the ship leaves harbour. Only if fresh faces take over significant roles will Carney’s promises of change hold substance. If his left flank feels ignored, or the cabinet leans too far toward a robust effort to grow economically and forgo environmental policies that the Trudeau government vigorously pursued, Carney could suffer a backlash that drives those voters back to the NDP or the Greens.
Secondly, watch what Carney does inside the Liberal caucus. Beyond his cabinet appointments, if Carney thinks he wants to be around long-term, he will have to imprint his image and philosophy on the party he leads. Working with party insiders, he will have to convince these officials that his ideas will ensure the party can maintain power. He will place his people in place to handle the inner workings of policy development, staff the offices around the country with those loyal to him and what he wants to achieve and speak to a new Liberal brand repeatedly. When he receives pushback, he will have sound reasons and some evidence to strengthen his arguments. There will be a takeover, and the stench left behind after the Trudeau years. Deodorizing it with competency, seriousness, and moral rectitude about government will help. In Carney’s world, bland trumps bling, and the boardroom will replace what had become safe spaces for some to express their woke moralism. Foreign trips will be about business, not costume parties. Developing partnerships with those who need Canada’s resources and with whom we can trade goods for mutual benefit will supersede trying to arrange green policy alignment. If Carney succeeds, he will lose the NDP vote, but he may win back some of the voters Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party ignores in the business community with its “Boots not Suits” approach.
This segways into how Carney plans to run Parliament and deal with the official Opposition and the other parties. If Carney can divide and conquer, he can build a stronger consensus for the next election. He will have at least two years to put this together. Absorbing or stealing some of the Tory platform remains his best option. The Liberals tacked so far left under Justin Trudeau that NDP voters could no longer see a reason for voting for their party. They feared Poilievre so much that they happily voted for Carney. The prime minister cannot count on that again. And if he does, he will commit political suicide because this will destroy the Canadian economy and prevent him from moving forward on his pledge to develop resources. A sure sign that things are changing will be cooperation between Carney and Poilievre. It will not be broad, but a surface-like willingness to agree on certain legislation that Carney “borrows” from the Conservatives will indicate that Carney has a long game in mind. These suggestions always come with a caution. If Carney does this too often, or the public sees a pattern, a strong chance exists that they will decide to vote for the Tories. Balancing these interests will be Carney’s challenge.
President Donald Trump could throw a figurative grenade into all these plans with a simple announcement. As Carney begins his political career, he can credit Trump for giving him an enormous boost. If Trump had said nothing about Trudeau, Carney may have never entered politics. Driving Trudeau from office opened the door for Carney. Not content with ending Trudeau’s career, Trump thought he should start offering Canada the opportunity to enter the Big Top over which he presides as the ringleader. These threats drove many to the Liberal Party and Carney. As the saying goes, “Live by the sword, die by the sword” may apply. Having assisted his business brother to Canada’s top office, he could also be his slayer. If nothing else, Trump seeks to be the central, dominating force in every nation’s business. Never satisfied merely to oversee America’s troubles, he loves to insert himself into the middle of other countries’ policies, elections, or domestic debates. Our geographical proximity makes us too great a temptation for Trump. Carney will have to be prepared for interference from the president and figure out a way to deal with it and the United States. In the greatest catch-22 of his career, he can’t live with Trump, but he can’t live without America’s trade.
Finally, the world economy will play a huge role in whatever success or longevity Carney enjoys as prime minister of Canada. Along with determining how to manage Canada’s relationship with America, Carney must carve out agreements with Europe and Asia, specifically China. He is savvy enough to know that cozying up to China will only anger the Americans. Redefining the American relationship will pose significant problems. Making bargains with Europe will reduce the effects of these issues. China provides no such relief. This author suspects Carney knows this and will look for ways to escape getting too close to the Asian titan. He can use our resources to make deals, but in the end, Carney will have to face reality and work something out with Trump. How that affects resource development, climate action, tax policy, or environmental legislation will also determine Carney’s future. While he may think he masters his destiny, nothing could be further from the truth. Carney must thread a needle to become a successful and long-serving prime minister. The journey has only begun. Carney spoke about his brief and unexciting athletic career on election night. We will soon find out if his political one will be as short.
Dave Redekop is a retired elementary resource teacher who worked part-time at the St. Catharines Courthouse as a Registrar until being appointed Executive Director at Redeemer Bible Church in October 2023. He has worked on political campaigns since high school and attended university in South Carolina for five years, earning a Master’s in American History with a specialization in Civil Rights. Dave loves reading biographies.
