Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre’s leadership ran aground in the aftermath of Canada’s federal election. Many things can be said about what happened to Poilievre on the way to the Prime Minister’s office. He held what appeared to be an insurmountable lead over the Trudeau Liberals until the election of Donald Trump in November 2024. When Trump ended Justin Trudeau’s political career, he threw a stick into the spokes of the Poilievre march to power. The Trudeau-Singh alliance fell into utter disapproval in Canada. Inevitably, as seen with the collapse of the NDP vote and Jagmeet Singh’s defeat in Burnaby, a Conservative government would have emerged if the status quo had remained.
Trump not only wounded Trudeau at Mar-a-Lago after the election, but even Liberals could smell blood. The Liberals, vexed about what to do with their unpopular leader, saw an opening. Chrystia Freeland plunged the knife, resigning as finance minister rather than be party to further financial malpractice. This political earthquake signified the end of the Trudeau era and the beginning of Poilievre’s troubles.
Having deposed Trudeau and his stinky polls, the Liberals began their resurgence. With party insiders working behind the scenes, Mark Carney, ever the opportunist, threw his hat into the ring with little resistance. The message from Liberal Headquarters warned competitors to keep their hands off Carney. The banker became the golden boy to those in liberal land hoping to cling to power. Those at the CBC, desperate to ensure their funding remained protected, also became cheerleaders for Carney’s coronation. Poilievre had choices, but things were moving so fast it was hard to know what to do as the Carney train ramped up. He feared saying too much about Trump and his rantings about a 51st state because that seemed far more attached to the Trudeau drama and not what Canadians thought Trump believed. Until Trump unremittingly repeated it. Poilievre should have pivoted when Trump had no intention of relenting on his obsession with foreign expansion. The Conservative leader pulled his punches and waited too long to defend Canada against America’s restored president. By Jan. 20, the day of Trump’s inauguration, Trudeau was gone, Carney was an announced candidate, and the polls were already beginning to show movement.
Since that seminal date, the Liberal machine has operated in high gear, almost pulling Carney across the line for a majority government. Meanwhile, Poilievre, once thought to be a shoo-in for prime minister, lost his seat in Carleton. Plenty of reasons exist to buttress this background information further, but space prevents a longer discussion. Carney prepares to name a fresh cabinet, begin a new parliament, and deliver a Throne Speech while Poilievre’s future remains undetermined. What can he do to respond, overcome his lousy hand, and move his fortunes forward?
A good first step would be to relinquish the control he has exercised over his members. Squashing his caucus’s communication with the press, becoming the party’s lone spokesperson, and determining all messages from a central power centre failed to bring it home. If holding on to his leadership means anything, he should work more respectfully and collegially with his team. That means replacing Jenni Byrne, his former romantic partner and campaign chair. Poilievre will argue against this, but Byrne’s devotion to the hard right and connections to MAGA hurt Poilievre in key areas. Rooting out efforts to replicate Trump’s ideas or policies remains a non-starter, even if many in the party like the American president. Once Poilievre has re-established himself firmly in the tradition of Canadian leaders who long to promote Canadian initiatives in the interest of Canadians, he will find his efforts to create solutions in Canada more easily received.
Poilievre must also appear willing to work with Carney on issues of common interest. He has to look like a prime minister in waiting, not a junkyard dog looking for the next opportunity to take a piece of Carney’s hide. If Carney fails miserably, there will be plenty of time to make hay. Early indications are that Carney wants to work with Poilievre on targeted issues to avoid the progressive zealotry of the NDP or the Greens. Carney would also prefer to avoid a partnership among the separatists. This creates an opening for Poilievre to look like someone ready to govern. By reaching out, Poilievre can appear reasonable, non-threatening, and serious. Canadians want their prime minister to succeed, but the American threat will shorten the lease. Poilievre longs to be the default prime minister. If he becomes the natural successor to Carney, he will overcome the odds and his detractors.
The Conservative leader will not get a second chance if he comes across as authoritarian inside his party, unwilling to work with the government, or too closely tied to Trump and his MAGA army.
Election night results bore out the Conservative Party’s popularity despite Poilievre’s negatives. The increase in seats in Ontario reflected impressive work. Premier Doug Ford’s recent sweep of Ontario led many to think Poilievre’s brand would suffer consequences. Instead, the Conservative vote share grew, the seat tally surged, and the party formed a base to build a government if the Carney Liberals fail. If the NDP rebounds and reclaims the progressive vote, the Conservatives will be in a powerful position to win the next election.
Poilievre’s challenge lay before him. He must convince his caucus and the party that he can lead them to victory. Like his predecessor, Erin O’Toole, his members now have the power to replace him. They drove O’Toole and Andrew Scheer from leadership and will do the same to Poilievre if they think someone else can finish the work. Successors wait in the wings like vultures in the desert. Premiers Tim Houston from Nova Scotia and Ford in Ontario, and several members within the federal caucus all see prime minister timber when they look in the mirror. Poilievre will have rivals, and the pressure will mount in the coming weeks. A party leadership review will occur if his return to the House after the by-election does not result in good poll results nationally. The chances of Poilievre leading the Conservatives into the next election, much less ever being prime minister, will depend on what happens over the next 12 months. His ability to respond to a changed landscape, his willingness to accept these changes, and his decisions regarding the new reality remain unknown. What once looked like an inevitable succession to the PMO appears to be a conundrum defined by a struggle.
Dave Redekop is a retired elementary resource teacher who worked part-time at the St. Catharines Courthouse as a Registrar until being appointed Executive Director at Redeemer Bible Church in October 2023. He has worked on political campaigns since high school and attended university in South Carolina for five years, earning a Master’s in American History with a specialization in Civil Rights. Dave loves reading biographies.
