The recent departure of Steven Guilbeault from Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Cabinet could begin an NDP revival that may find its best voice in the dearly departed former minister of the environment. As a member of the Trudeau government and Carney’s Quebec lieutenant until his recent split, Guilbeault would check a lot of boxes for the NDP and bring them instant credibility on the climate change initiatives they promote. As Adrian Humphreys wrote in the National Post, “Guilbeault’s resignation, his turning away from the profile, influence and salary of a cabinet minister on a point of principle — which is opposing an agreement by Ottawa with Alberta to push for a new oil pipeline — rekindles a sense of fire in his belly that he had when first making news as an environmental activist, a reckless radical in the eyes of opponents.”
The fire in the belly that Humphreys refers to could turn into a romance between Guilbeault and the leaderless NDP, a party trying to redefine its identity, rebuild its reputation, and re-establish itself as a player in national politics. The 2025 election just about wiped out the democratic socialists, leaving them with seven seats, their leader defeated, and in their worst position since 1993.
Avi Lewis, whose grandfather, David, led the party from 1971 to 1975, and whose father is Stephen Lewis, is among the candidates in the party’s leadership race, which will conclude in March 2026. In the race are Rob Ashton, a labour leader, Heather MacPherson, the MP for Edmonton-Strathcona since 2019, and some unknown participants. Guilbeault would bring star power, interest, and Quebec support, something the NDP desperately needs to get back in the game.
STAR POWER
In ways not necessarily favourable, Canadians have some familiarity with Guilbeault. His well-documented arrest in 2001 brought controversy to his appointment in the Trudeau government, but he was not averse to speaking strongly and advocating passionately for climate change legislation. Guilbeault’s presence drew immediate attention to the climate change file. He negotiated significant regulations that have hamstrung the Carney government, and the former Greenpeace activist does not seem likely to go away quietly. If he intends to use government to influence climate policy, what better way than to help the NDP win enough seats to hold the balance of power in the next government? His power base in Quebec sees him as a check to Carney and his pro-business, western Canada sympathies. The opportunity for growth in Quebec could be tempting. It was just 2011 when the NDP swept the province under Jack Layton. Between his environmental bona fides, his Quebec following, and appeal to the progressive left, Guilbeault could prove to be trouble for the Liberal hopes of securing a majority government. More about Quebec in just a moment.
NDP DOLDRUMS
For the better part of the 2020s, the NDP’s presence in federal politics has been in freefall. The agreement former leader Jagmeet Singh worked out with former prime minister Justin Trudeau was the closest thing to a death warrant he could have signed. While absorbing some of the most left-wing ideas any government ever imposed on Canadians, this alliance all but ended the NDP’s relevance. Sidelined in the 2025 campaign, many thought they should work out a merger with the Liberals and disappear. Short of that, they have soldiered on, but their voice remains weak, only important because Carney’s government falls short of a majority by two or three votes. The leadership candidates are of poor to middling value, and a couple threaten to move the party even further left into the fringes. The march to fifth place in a five-party parliament has to worry the head honchos who sit on the party executive. Increasing interest in the party’s leadership race could only help a party that has been in the doldrums for the past number of years, sits in fourth place with no party standing, and has few prospects for better days ahead.
QUEBEC
Since Sir Wilfrid Laurier’s time, Canadian prime ministers have come from Quebec. After Laurier, we had St. Laurent, Trudeau the elder, Mulroney, Chrétien, and Trudeau the younger. Ontario has produced one more prime minister than Quebec, but that counts Diefenbaker and Harper, who are really from the West. If the NDP could gather support in Quebec with a genuine Quebecois leader, their path to influence in the House of Commons would become credible. Guilbeault represents Laurier-Saint-Marie, a riding that Gilles Duceppe, former Bloc leader, held until 2011 when the NDP took it for two terms. The riding, situated in downtown Montreal, could readily re-elect an NDP member. Guilbeault’s leadership might revive the party, motivating NDP members to run and perhaps sparking another “orange wave” like in 2011. It is still unclear whether the party will accept Guilbeault, but the current direction should not give the party leaders confidence. With Quebec’s views on oil and climate, the NDP could capitalize if they engage with Guilbeault honestly and respectfully. The upsides exist for the man and the party.
FINAL THOUGHTS
Guilbeault has not resigned from the Liberal Party or parliament, just from his cabinet office. His not cutting ties with Carney implies a shift in stance or a future power move. He may believe that with a French-speaking leader taking his/her turn the next time he has a shot to lead the Liberals into a future election and attain an office greater than Opposition leader, something he would have to settle for as NDP leader if history tells us anything. No one really knows what Guilbeault wants. He has been vague and refused to reveal much beyond his principled resignation from the cabinet. People will raise eyebrows if the former minister steps down from his Commons seat or declares a firm exit date from Parliament. Until then, only speculation survives. When Carney accepted the challenge of becoming the leader, he knew this day would come. He and Guilbeault could not co-exist. Did he see Guilbeault as a potential rival? In the cut and thrust of daily political life, who knows where Guilbeault could yet land? A high-profile job as NDP leader could put him in a position to lead the Opposition and become the government-in-waiting. Humphreys adds, “Guilbeault joined Greenpeace in 1997. It was a global high-profile network of activists and campaigners, and he became a spokesman on environmental policy. He was arrested four times at various protests and stunts designed to draw attention to their issues.
“Many of the protest stunts reveal a sense of daring: blocking a ship from unloading coal by suspending activists over the hopper doors; fastening themselves to the top of an enormous piece of oil equipment, requiring the RCMP to rent cherry pickers to grab them. In 2002, he and colleagues climbed onto the roof of then-Alberta Premier Ralph Klein’s house to install solar panels. And then the CN Tower climb.” Will his passions take him back to protesting environmental issues or into the heat of more political battles? Guilbeault’s future, and maybe even Carney’s, depends on the answer.
Dave Redekop is a retired elementary resource teacher who worked part-time at the St. Catharines Courthouse as a Registrar until being appointed Executive Director at Redeemer Bible Church in October 2023. He has worked on political campaigns since high school and attended university in South Carolina for five years, earning a Master’s in American History with a specialization in Civil Rights. Dave loves reading biographies.
