In anticipation of a federal election that might take place in the spring or summer of 2026, the Conservative Party needs to gear up for the difficulties of facing both a well-liked prime minister and an opposition leader whose efforts to build trust over three years have been unsuccessful. In most polls, Mark Carney holds a commanding lead over Pierre Poilievre as preferred prime minister. This column has discussed this phenomenon before, but we must acknowledge its continued reality.
In January, Poilievre will face a leadership review in Calgary. He will probably survive. With the need to have a majority to govern, the Prime Minister will either face a confidence defeat or seek to have the Governor-General dissolve parliament as we move into the spring or early summer. The ensuing election between Carney and Poilievre will come down to whether the Conservatives can undermine Carney, Poilievre can broker trust with voters, the NDP rebounds, and what U.S. President Donald Trump decides about tariffs and trade.
UNDERMINING CARNEY
The goodwill Carney enjoys across Canada puzzles some and frustrates many. Carney strode into the PMO last year amidst a very unpopular predecessor and hopes of minimizing Liberal losses. In record time, Carney, with help from the mainstreamers, Trump, and his principal opponent, soared into first place in the polls and almost formed a majority government in the April election he fearlessly called just days after assuming office. As the election wore on, Poilievre made headway. Canadians put their trust in the former banker and business executive, expecting him to manage Trump and rectify the issues that former prime minister Justin Trudeau had left unresolved. Poilievre must raise evidence to undermine Carney’s success in either matter if he hopes to overtake his rival.
Poilievre will have to pound home the message that Carney has failed to negotiate a good deal with Trump. Lending money to Stellantis and Algoma proves that the prime minister and his government are flailing, trying to buy their way out of a problem they can’t solve. He needs to put Carney on the defensive and help Canadians understand they need a new government with new ideas. Until voters have a good reason to doubt Carney, they will default to him. His image as a fixer, a competent manager, and a serious global economic player creates automatic trust.
Poilievre’s brain trust, including new campaign manager Steve Outhouse, will have to draw up a game plan that emphasizes how many times Carney has missed an opportunity to resolve issues with Trump. They cannot use personal insults to do so; it must be evidence-based information that shows Carney has messed up the relationship, communicated poorly, and has lost the thread on a deal with Trump. Conjoined will be his inability to bring down inflation, secure jobs for Canadians, and increase productivity. His talk has been strong, but his achievements weak. If the opposition leader can breakthrough on this front, he has a chance of getting a second hearing.
BUILDING TRUST
It won’t be enough for Poilievre to cast doubt on Carney. He will have to connect with voters on a deeper level. After three years, the Conservative leader has become synonymous with American-style politics, mean-spirited attacks, and an ugly streak that prevents moderate voters from supporting him. Whether Poilievre can change remains to be seen. Should his current approach continue, he will probably only reach the edge and never be able to surpass it.
Outhouse, as his new campaign manager, will deliver the bad news that, whatever success Poilievre has had building bridges with blue conservatives and tradesmen, he has lost votes to the more educated sector and to former conservative voters who want moderate change, not populism that threatens the system.
Poilievre will have to separate himself from Trump’s rhetoric and antics. While he expresses outrage at Trump’s patronizing insults about Canada, many voters in the centre remain reluctant to trust him with the country’s future. If he wants to become prime minister, he must commit to a new vocabulary. He must let others do some of the dirty work while he stays on the high road, hitting crowds with economic facts that expose the Liberals’ lousy record over the past decade.
Voters in the middle may find an excuse to reconsider Poilievre if he disciplines his message, demonstrates some humility, and acts like a prime minister and not an attack dog. Until Poilievre farms out the political red meat and concentrates on making his case, he will face a tough challenge in shifting voters from soft Carney supporters to himself.
NDP REBOUND
The NDP’s moribund condition hurts the Conservatives and Poilievre’s chances of forming the next government. Until the socialists are revived, their vote will drift to the Liberals. Some will vote Green or Bloc in Quebec, but the weaker the NDP, the greater the argument that Carney can coalesce voters into a majority government.
What can the Conservative strategists and Poilievre do to overcome this problem? Wait and hope for the most part. Wait for climate change supporters to get disillusioned and abandon the Liberals. Hope that Carney’s pledges to Alberta’s Danielle Smith do not steal seats from the Conservatives in their stronghold. Wait for the NDP to select a leader who will appeal to the progressive base and get them back on board. Hope this new leader doesn’t shift so far left that they become a perennial rump party, providing the Liberals with a new base of support.
TRUMP AND TARIFFS
Last week, the president considered withdrawing from the North American trade agreement with Mexico and Canada when it expires next year. That should surprise no one. Since the 1980s, Trump has thrown shade at free trade. He does not like big trade deals, and he would much rather make agreements one country at a time. He thinks he can wring out concessions that way and throw American economic weight around to more effect. Poilievre could use this to his advantage.
Carney’s status as a global businessman lends him credibility with voters who want a serious negotiator representing Canada. This has not worked so far, and Trump has frozen him out more often than not. Poilievre will have to plead his case on this one, pointing out that what Carney promised has not happened.
If Canadians want results that count, they have to look to Pierre. They have to hire the Conservatives because Carney, in action, has tried to steal much of the Conservative policy platform anyway. Poilievre could use a debate setting to launch this appeal, listing the ideas Carney’s Liberals have taken from the Conservative playbook, and then asking Canadians to put their trust in the real thing, not some pale imitation.
Carney faces opposition in his own party, doubters in his caucus, and skeptics in his cabinet. By the time he clears the party of the scoffers and deniers, the opportunities to develop resources may have already passed. Based on urgency, Poilievre will have to call on Canadians to entrust the only party committed to resource development with negotiating these deals, the Conservatives. In a moment of national interest, he could appeal to Canadians to set aside their partisan doubts and let the party whose heart and soul believes in a strong Canadian economy oversee this crucial moment in our history. He cannot allow the Liberals to mislead Canadians once more, that they are the political party most suited to promote the country’s interests.
The next few months will decide the future of our leading politicians, the economic well-being of Canadians, and Canada’s long-term role on the international stage and within the Western Hemisphere. Poilievre will either rise to the occasion and lift his party with him, or we will continue down the mediocre, mushy path of appeasing progressives, making dubious promises of development to provincial partners, and becoming more dependent on foreign nations for products we could make in Canada. The choice is obvious. Will Poilievre and his team respond to the moment?
Dave Redekop is a retired elementary resource teacher who worked part-time at the St. Catharines Courthouse as a Registrar until being appointed Executive Director at Redeemer Bible Church in October 2023. He has worked on political campaigns since high school and attended university in South Carolina for five years, earning a Master’s in American History with a specialization in Civil Rights. Dave loves reading biographies.
