Within the Conservative Party, a strain of thought has been gaining steam. Pierre Poilievre has hit his high-water mark. After rising in the polls meteorically while the wildly unpopular Justin Trudeau held the reins, Poilievre has been sinking in support since. His party’s solid showing in the April election fell far short of what the party hoped to achieve, and Poilievre lost his seat. Since then, he has been on his hind feet trying to combat the popular Prime Minister Mark Carney. While the Conservative Party remains within striking distance of the Liberals in most polls, Canadians prefer Carney over Poilievre by about 20 per cent when asked who they want as prime minister. This gap scares the Conservative brain trust assigned the task of winning the next election. They are so baffled, whispers of a new leader have been heard circulating at Parliament Hill. This may resolve the “Pierre Problem”, but it would create a series of other difficulties that the party had better think through carefully before it decides to have a fourth leadership race since Stephen Harper stepped down 10 years ago. Parties that go through leaders like the rest of us do sneakers do not always project the kind of stability that makes voters comfortable. Dumping Pierre Poilievre will bring perils that the CPC should consider before making any hasty decisions.
PERIL #1
The Conservative Party has a long history of ugly leadership fights that left deep bruises and took a long time to heal. The party suffered three consecutive defeats after the 1967 ouster of John Diefenbaker. Brian Mulroney’s ascent in 1983 following the ouster of Joe Clark did lead to two majority governments, but it was the first Conservative majority in a generation. Since the Harper era, the party has dispensed of two leaders and still has yet to record a victory. Poilievre enjoys a lot of support inside the caucus, and it will be hard to convince many of his MPs that the risk of changing jockeys right now seems worth the risks. The party bears his imprint, and many of the members who sit in the Commons owe their victories to him. The party increased its numbers by about 25 and has a good chance of winning the next time. Many still want Poilievre to succeed and believe that sticking with him through the next election will bear fruit. A divisive leadership race, especially one with Poilievre seeking his old job, could prove counterproductive and a waste of time and money that could be used to defeat Carney’s Liberals.
PERIL #2
Who would succeed Poilievre? There are no obvious choices. Rona Ambrose has signalled she won’t run at this time. Within the caucus, some young members are growing in capacity, but they lack experience or a profile. Melissa Lantsman has many admirers, but her outspoken advocacy for LGBTQ rights in the party could be problematic with many social conservative voters who would make a majority government possible. Mike Barrett, also a young up-and-coming member, lacks experience, is not bilingual, and may need some more seasoning before he takes on the job of leader. Leslyn Lewis has some proven experience and has been in caucus for a while, but she holds positions as right-wing populist as Poilievre on several fronts and may not provide much change from where things are at present. A new person would mean a fresh start, but it could also move the party back a few steps when it should be a government in waiting.
PERIL #3
A leadership campaign would be costly and make the Conservatives look desperate. Losing in 2019 initiated a leadership review and convention; losing in 2021 did the same. Another loss in 2025, followed by another change in leadership, creates uncertainty, hurting the party’s chances to project confidence. Conservative leaders used to get a couple of chances to prove they could win. Harper lost in 2004, then won three times in a row. In all, he stood for the party in five consecutive elections, the most since Pierre Trudeau between 1968 and 1980. That kind of stability cannot be undervalued. Canadians take time to warm up to a leader. Poilievre has never been considered “Mr. Warmth”, but his ability to marshal facts and speak directly to issues has been underplayed. Undoubtedly, Poilievre rubs many people the wrong way, says things that remind voters of U.S. President Donald Trump, and can come across as too harsh. He needs to work on softening his image, developing some empathy, and speaking to Canadians, not down to them. The party has to ask itself if the chances of Poilievre improving exceed the chances of a new leader catching fire. If they do, stick with him. If in doubt, a leadership convention may occur.
PERIL #4
Introducing a new leader takes time, costs money, and will come with inevitable missteps. Starting from scratch against the Liberal machine will mean a reset and the risk that the leader will be defined before an accurate message can be developed. What if the leader makes a mistake like Stockwell Day did just before the 2000 election, appearing on a jet ski and proclaiming that the holiday for the Liberal government was over? Day never recovered. That was the only election he stood for as leader. Can the Conservatives afford to retire Mr. Poilievre and then elect someone who doesn’t work?
At this point, the safest course, though still riddled with pitfalls, would keep the leader and hire an image consultant to help him better convey his message. He should also be forced to face focus groups that demand he adjust his speaking style, craft an appealing conservative message, and identify the top three to five ideas a new government would initiate. The leaders who have stayed on message, repeated their agenda, and avoided the distractions of American-style campaigns tend to succeed. Poilievre may not deserve another chance, but the Tories do not have the luxury of finding someone better suited at this point, nor can they throw caution to the wind and hope for a Mulroney or Harper to emerge. In this case, patience trumps peril. Steady as she goes, sang the Raconteurs. There are no quick fixes for the Conservatives, merely continued daily work that will hopefully take them into government, where they can apply the lessons learned.
Dave Redekop is a retired elementary resource teacher who worked part-time at the St. Catharines Courthouse as a Registrar until being appointed Executive Director at Redeemer Bible Church in October 2023. He has worked on political campaigns since high school and attended university in South Carolina for five years, earning a Master’s in American History with a specialization in Civil Rights. Dave loves reading biographies.
