As the days pass, Conservative Party supporters, holding steady at around 35 per cent in the polls, remain uncertain about how Pierre Poilievre will turn the party’s fortunes around before the next election. For many, it looks like Poilievre, having tried a variety of strategies to get off his back foot, awaits a political miracle to change his luck. The following list may explain his thinking and strategy as he faces political headwinds, though he and the party may not subscribe to all these suggestions.
CARNEY ECONOMY CRUMBLES – AFFORDABILITY TURNS
Like most elections, “it’s the economy, stupid.” If the Carney economy fails to deliver improved employment numbers, lower inflation, increased productivity, and manageable interest rates, the Conservatives could rebound. The prime minister’s credibility is tied to his overseeing better days economically. His predecessor left him a mess, but if after two or three years, things remain stagnant, a small voice could turn into a chorus asking why things are not improving. Prime Minister Mark Carney has a long leash, but it’s not endless. His success will inevitably come down to how people perceive things in their lives and in the lives of their families and neighbours. If Carney cannot affirm that things are better after his term in office, that everyday goods remain too pricey, and housing unaffordable, expect the Conservatives to have a fighting chance.
RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT GETS SIDELINED
Carney has promised to get Canadian resources to market. Any delay will create a stumbling block to his claim to have made life better for Canadians. In 2026, many remain believers in the banker’s ability to get things straightened out. They are confident he has a strategy and a plan to deal with U.S. President Donald Trump, circumvent our dependence on the United States, and negotiate new deals with countries in Europe and Asia. This will be tested in the months and years to come. If deals fall through, projects get held up, Indigenous groups demand more than the government can afford, or environmental groups conduct successful court challenges to various ventures, then Poilievre will have ammunition for a campaign, in a debate, and in his advertisements. Watch this one closely as the government heads into early 2027 and the second half of its mandate.
PEOPLE GET NATURALLY FATIGUED OF LIBERALS BLAMING TRUDEAU/SINGH’S POLICIES
Normally, a government will blame the rival party for all its problems, but Carney has successfully pointed to his predecessor even though they are both Liberals. At some point, the old Liberal arguments may get tiresome, even for a public captivated with Carney’s intellect, global presence, and thick resume. By 2029, the Liberals will be 14 years into a mandate. Even Canada’s most popular governments have accumulated enough baggage to become weighed down by the time they seek a fourth or fifth mandate. Having won in 2015, 2019, 2021, and 2025, the Liberals will attempt to win a fifth consecutive election when they next go to the polls. That would tie their record achieved from 1935 to 1953 and again from 1963 to 1974, when they won five successive times, holding power for twenty-two years and then sixteen years. It can be done, but it’s rare and could signal that voters may be ready for a change.
NDP FORTUNES RISE
Counting on the rise of the NDP may be elusive. Their leader, an outspoken leftist, has never met a tax he would not like to raise nor a regulation he would not like to fatten. Regardless, the NDP has a long history in Canadian politics, and some still believe that its bromides have value and that social justice can be achieved through wealth redistribution. If enough old-style socialists and NDP loyalists return to the party after fleeing to the Liberals under Carney, they could tip enough seats to put a Conservative government back in play. The problem will be how to form a government even if they have the most seats but not a majority. Hoping for an NDP rebound so large it allows the Conservatives to win a majority ranks up there with hoping the Leafs can win the Stanley Cup. Not impossible, but difficult to imagine.
TRUMP FADES (2029)
This wildcard broke the Conservative momentum more than anything in 2024-25. Trump’s scheduled departure occurs on Jan. 20, 2029. No one knows who his successor will be, but few believe he or she will make the outrageous claims Trump made about Canada as the 51st state, nor threaten its northern neighbour with hefty tariffs. Everyone expects that the next president, even if J.D. Vance, will treat Canada better and not interfere in our elections and internal politics the way Trump chose to when he called former prime minister Justin Trudeau the governor or questioned Carney’s understanding of Canada’s secondary role in supporting the United States’ world leadership. With the 2026 midterms likely to curb Trump’s ability to sow discord, and the increasing attention the 2028 candidates will receive, this constant source of irritation for Poilievre may begin to fade as Canada’s election nears.
VOTERS TAKE A SHINE TO POILIEVRE
The chances of Poilievre capturing fire with Canada’s electorate at this point seem remote. Most would say his persona has been sealed in stone. Most voters rate him a middling political talent and are not thrilled with his populist rants. What could change that? An image makeover? A shift in emphasis? These sound like a wing and a prayer. If the Conservatives decide to head into the next election with Poilievre as the leader, they will be accepting the risks and should expect little beyond what most acknowledge. Poilievre has a following and helped the Tories to over 40 per cent in the last election. If he maintains that level of support and can make some headway with the older voters who fled to the Carney Liberals, he could pull off a victory. Anticipating a mania that fed majority governments for Diefenbaker, the Trudeaus, or Mulroney sounds improbable.
CARNEY DECIDES HE HAS HAD ENOUGH AND LEAVES
Carney gets restless. It might be tempting for him if he thinks he could land a job he would love, such as the President of Harvard University. Carney does not like campaigning, and he would not enjoy managing a minority. Canadians have already seen the brokering he did to attract “floor crossers” and manufacture a majority government. After about five or six years, he likes to take on a new challenge. If the polls show any level of uncertainty heading into 2029, he could pull the plug and head for greener pastures.
The reader can decide the plausibility of these outcomes. There are seven, as in “lucky” number seven. If one or two of these falls in Poilievre’s favour, it could help him make a comeback. If he gets three or four, he could win. If five or more occur, then lady luck has blown on his dice, and the latest political miracle could put Poilievre in the Prime Minister’s Office despite all the naysayers who think his time has already passed. The Conservatives may be counting on a miracle, but they happen every day.
Dave Redekop is a retired elementary resource teacher who worked part-time at the St. Catharines Courthouse as a Registrar until being appointed Executive Director at Redeemer Bible Church in October 2023. He has worked on political campaigns since high school and attended university in South Carolina for five years, earning a Master’s in American History with a specialization in Civil Rights. Dave loves reading biographies.
