Once again, it is time for this author to face the music and check on how my predictions at this time last year stood up to actual events. In my many years as a business economist, I was always critical of those economists who were happy to make predictions yet never revisited them to see if they were even remotely accurate. There is an old joke that economists predicted seven of the last four recessions. This may be the reason economics is called the dismal science, as predictions often tend toward the negative. In any case, here goes – an assessment of how my five forecasts for 2025 turned out relative to what actually happened during the year.
The first prediction had to do with the Liberal party, and the likelihood that former prime minister Justin Trudeau would finally step down as his unpopularity with Canadians reached record levels. My prediction was correct on this front but, to be fair, it was a bit of a slam-dunk and not much of a surprise to any political observer although there were some that thought he might try to hang in against all odds. My forecast was also correct in assuming that Trudeau would not be around to host the G7 meeting that took place in Canada in June 2025.
However, I certainly missed the rapid ascension of Mark Carney to Liberal leader, although it had been rumoured for some time that he might take over that position. The Liberal party clearly wanted Carney hustled to the leadership, as he had barely returned to Canada from his European perch when a whirlwind leadership convention was scheduled in the shortest possible time frame, and effectively appointed Carney to the post with no serious opposition. So much for that “robust, competitive, nationwide” process to find the next leader that Trudeau promised. It was clear that the Liberals wanted Carney quickly thrust into the leader position and presiding over an election before Canadians had much of a chance to get to know him. That might be a cautionary tale for our future. And although I did predict a spring election, I did not anticipate the rapid change in polling that ended up giving the Liberals a minority mandate in April 2025.
My expectation was that Trudeau, still relatively young in his early 50s, would move on to some well-remunerated but basically token post at the United Nations or some other similar international entity. His ending up in a relationship with pop star Katy Perry, however, was certainly not on my list of probabilities. Given Trudeau’s narcissism and love of the limelight, it’s probable he’s very pleased with that outcome as compared to some boring UN appointment.
The second prediction had to do with the economy. Although I expected slightly better growth in GDP in 2025 than 2024, that does not appear to be what happened, although final data for 2025 are not yet completed. Current forecasts of 2025 GDP growth in real terms (discounted for inflation) are around 1.4 per cent, as compared to 2.0 per cent in 2024. Economists generally agreed that recent years’ GDP has been buoyed by the massive number of people coming into Canada from around the world, and not really representative of the strength of the economy.
Now that we are finally seeing a very slight reduction in our population growth, which will hopefully continue as excessive immigration has disrupted Canada mightily, we will also likely see a further weakening of GDP growth as fewer entrants to Canada means aggregate demand will fall. This does not bode well for 2026. My other prediction of a worsening of Canada’s competitive position in 2025 did unfortunately come true. This Liberal government has damaged Canada’s economic position significantly over the past decade. Carney’s arrival, heralded as that of an economic saviour for Canada, has certainly not yielded any improvements as yet.
My third prediction involved the growing push-back against the many “woke” trends in our society, and that this resistance would continue to increase. This did indeed take place, with some serious reforms being undertaken in our public school system in Alberta and Ontario, and growing opposition to policies such as DEI in the workplace. Such international bodies such as GFANZ (Global Financial Alliance for Net Zero), a creation of Mark Carney, fell apart as it became clear they were very bad for business. I was, however, wrong that opposition to the ridiculous pro-terrorist hate-fests on our streets would grow to the point that politicians would have to do something about them. Although there has been growing opposition to these infringements on all of our freedoms, there does not seem to be enough as yet to encourage cowardly politicians at all levels of government to do anything about them. The federal government’s recognition of “Palestine” was an appalling development that further enabled the antisemites in our streets.
The fourth prediction concerned the actions of U.S. President Donald Trump, anticipating that he would not impose the 25 per cent tariffs across the board on Canada as was expected at that time. This did turn out to be true and, as Carney himself has conceded, the U.S. administration has respected the USMCA/CUSMA and 85 per cent of Canadian exports to the U.S. are still not subject to tariffs. Another prediction of U.S. behaviour did come true, in that Trump’s abandonment of many of the Biden administration’s “green” policies meant that Canada’s multi-billion-dollar taxpayer investments in foolish things like EV battery plants became even more ridiculous. It’s amazing that so many Canadian taxpayers continue to tolerate the abuse of their tax dollars in massive amounts by this Liberal government.
The fifth and final projection was that Trump’s second presidential term would serve to lessen Middle East tensions. This was based on Trump’s achievement of the Abraham Accords in his first term, which were a positive development. However, the past year has not really shown much improvement in the Hamas-Israel standoff, despite Trump’s claims of having brokered a peace agreement. The situation is similar for the Russia-Ukraine war, where Trump has said he has a solution but it is so tilted toward Russian interests that it understandably causes great concerns for Europe and other Western countries. Sadly for all concerned, these conflicts will continue well into 2026.
For 2025, I think I batted about .650, with most predictions turning out to be more correct than not. Some of these forecasts were easier than others, so you readers can be the judge of how accurate they actually were. In a future column I’ll tackle my expectations for 2026, which is likely to be another year of disruption, both domestically and globally. It will also be a year of reckoning for the Carney government, which hasn’t been in place long enough to accurately judge its ability to reverse Canada’s economic and societal decline. Another few months will be instructive to inform Canadians as to whether or not this not-so-new Liberal government will improve our fortunes or just be a continuation of Trudeau’s lost decade.
Whatever the case, I want to wish you all a Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah and Happy Holidays, and hope you enjoy a lovely holiday with your family and loved ones.
She has published numerous articles in journals, magazines & other media on issues such as free trade, finance, entrepreneurship & women business owners. Ms. Swift is a past President of the Empire Club of Canada, a former Director of the CD Howe Institute, the Canadian Youth Business Foundation, SOS Children’s Villages, past President of the International Small Business Congress and current Director of the Fraser Institute. She was cited in 2003 & 2012 as one of the most powerful women in Canada by the Women’s Executive Network & is a recipient of the Queen’s Silver & Gold Jubilee medals.
