On the heels of Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Davos stem-winder, U.S. President Donald Trump has hit back hard at the prime minister’s assertions and accusations. Trying to figure out where each man stands on Canada-U.S. relations, NATO’s relevance, and continued economic cooperation leaves geopolitical analysts exhausted, never mind the average citizen. During the second quarter of Trump’s second term, it has become self-evident that political theatrics frequently accompany the motivations behind the president’s actions. Do these theatrics preview grave danger for Canada and its allies, or do they characterize Trump’s willingness to abandon traditional diplomacy and statesmanship for a cruder populist approach? What lies behind the huffing and puffing, the threats, the flexing of muscles, and the bare-knuckled aggression? Point by point, this author will try to explain, provide context, and guide the reader toward a clearer understanding of Trump’s gambit.
CHINA
A thin-skinned man like Trump carries grudges forever. While admiring the power of Chairman Xi, Trump hates China for many reasons, chief among them being their threat to American power and its integral role in COVID-19. Trump will never forgive China for its part in denying him a 2020 election victory. Before COVID hit, Trump was favoured to win re-election. The pandemic changed everything but only fed Trump’s suspicion and contempt toward his communist rival. Seething with resentment, Trump has doubled down on his efforts to reduce China’s influence, change trade dynamics with the Communist regime, and challenge China’s presence in the Western Hemisphere. Carney’s trip to China has further sparked Trump’s anger. What our prime minister may see as an opportunity, the president views as irresponsible economic dealings. Trump’s ever-changing demands have complicated Carney’s plans, but turning to China looks traitorous to Trump. One can label America’s president as unhinged, erratic, unpredictable, or vengeful, but he won the 2024 election and, unless something unforeseen occurs, remains president for three more years. Perhaps Carney has a long-term plan as well, but as it stands, if China becomes the cudgel to force Trump’s hand, he has received bad intel or ill-advisedly trusts his political instincts.
On Jan. 24, Trump posted, “The last thing the world needs is to have China take over Canada. It’s NOT going to happen, or even come close to happening!” China may not want to invade Canada, but an economic agreement between the two nations poses a threat to America. This emerging partnership creates far too many problems with our greatest trading ally and best friend. If Carney follows this path, knowing that Trump opposes it with every fibre of his being, he must have other plans at hand. For his own political advantage, Carney does not like Canada playing a supporting role. He may want to parlay these developments into justifying an election in Canada, but even with a majority government, Carney will have to work out agreements with Trump. Could he think he would have a better chance of doing so if he did not have to answer to his progressive caucus constantly? It bears watching. Maybe both Carney and Trump are using political theatre to strengthen their positions. If so, they both risk overplaying their hands. Trump has looked unstable in his dealings with Canada, Greenland, and Denmark, raising doubts about his temperament and his age. Carney still needs America as a partner. Having Trump as an enemy brings many advantages electorally at home, but the economic downsides may not be worth the trouble.
ELECTORAL POLITICS
There will be elections this fall for House and Senate seats in the United States. If the polls remain static and align with historical results, the House of Representatives will return to Democratic control. Democrats may also take the Senate, but regardless, Congress will probably look different by next January. That could present many obstacles for Trump and once again tie him up in legal wrangling and expensive court cases. Trump would have to oversee an economic miracle in the next couple of months to avoid these outcomes. Barring that, he must prepare for a House eager to obstruct, obfuscate, and investigate. Carney knows Trump faces these problems and sees a potentially vulnerable president with whom he may have more leverage in a few months.
Carney also recognizes that Trump punches his ticket to power like no one else. If he can keep Trump off-balance, howling at him about Canada’s independence, and calling him Governor Carney, he knows that the political benefits for him and his party increase significantly. He seems indifferent to securing a majority government at the ballot box or through floor-crossers, but advantages exist. If they could win a majority outright, it would create a Carney government completely separate from the Trudeau era. He could clean house. No more Trudeau ministers spouting off about the environment and other progressive causes. Instead, a tighter ship answerable to Carney, and a sense inside the caucus that they owe him for their political lives. Every time Carney pokes Trump, he has a purpose. Trump may not care, but bringing down the temperature and working out a trade deal would help the United States more than showing how much he can push Canada’s prime minister. The political theatre in Davos only brought Canada closer to an election that may cement opposition to Trump for the rest of his term.
IMPLICATIONS
Ian Bradbury, a global security specialist with over 25 years of experience, recently wrote (The Reality Behind a “U.S. Invasion” War-Planning Story That Landed Amid Heated Arctic Defence Negotiations as Carney Went to Davos), that taking Trump’s invasion threats literally can lead to bad policy. In the article, Bradbury states, “It is equally important to assert that, for some Canadian security experts, it is very clear that President Trump’s provocations about Canada becoming the ’51st state’ are part of well-established political bluster aimed at forcing rapid and meaningful territorial defence capability development among NATO countries he views as laggards, not serious invasion threats.”
To provide context, on the front page of The Globe and Mail, Jan. 20, one of Canada’s leading mainstream journalists, Robert Fife, helped author a story about Canada’s military modelling what an American invasion of its northern neighbour might entail. Bradbury has no problem with Canada doing due diligence to prepare for worst-case scenarios. As he suggests, “…failing to prepare effectively for such scenarios weakens collective preparedness and strategic positioning, rather than strengthens stability and sovereignty.” But he warns, “In this moment, instead of amplifying division with our most important ally, serious Canadian leaders should channel this into a focus on what truly strengthens territorial defence and North American security: deliberate, capability-driven cooperation with the United States and reinforcement of the strategic partnership.”
Finally, Bradbury stresses the real dangers of this so-called “rupture” when he writes, “When strains emerge in long-standing partnerships from transient political noise or differing communications strategies, staunch allies do not retreat or overreact. They assess and acknowledge where friction stems from, safeguard shared interests, double down on diplomacy and meaningful cooperation to achieve mutual goals, and stand united against common adversaries and threats.” Bradbury’s principle should guide our leaders behind closed doors. What they might want to portray for domestic political consumption should not confuse or override the commitment to long-term security.
The war of words between Carney and Trump served neither nation well. The theatre on display for the past couple of weeks has run its course. Let’s hope the main characters return to statesmanship and shelve the temptation to beat their chests, inflate their rhetoric, or taunt their nemeses. Hating Trump will not cure Canada’s economic woes, and neither will making deals with China. Mark Carney must resist being sidetracked from negotiations with our largest trading partner and strongest ally. Trump’s harangues are no excuse for poor policy. The Mark Carney project was about dealing with Donald Trump. Canadians are about to find out if Carney has game.
Dave Redekop is a retired elementary resource teacher who worked part-time at the St. Catharines Courthouse as a Registrar until being appointed Executive Director at Redeemer Bible Church in October 2023. He has worked on political campaigns since high school and attended university in South Carolina for five years, earning a Master’s in American History with a specialization in Civil Rights. Dave loves reading biographies.
