The Conservative Party of Canada may face the prospect of a leadership race after they meet in Calgary next January. A leadership race will follow if party members decide Pierre Poilievre must resign or if Poilievre believes the support he receives lacks enthusiasm and triggers one by resigning. Who would put their name forth? After a bruising race, what candidate would emerge as the leader of a party desperate to reclaim power and heading into a second decade in opposition? The following provides a brief analysis of the potential outcome of a hypothetical race:
FAVOURITES
Pierre Poilievre – If Poilievre ran to replace himself, he would stand a good chance of winning. The results in the recent election were disappointing but not devastating. Poilievre remains popular in the caucus, and many still see him as the best person to articulate the Conservative Party’s vision for Canada. While Poilievre’s criticism of Prime Minister Mark Carney might need adjustments compared to his criticism of Trudeau, Canadians are familiar with him and willing to give him a chance; with effort, he could still be a strong contender.
Rona Ambrose – When Stephen Harper stepped down, Ambrose became the interim leader of the party from 2015 until 2017. Many wanted her to run then, but after a decade out of office, she remains an attractive national candidate. Her brand of conservatism may not excite the outer right wing of the party, but she has enough savvy to manage them. Ambrose would bolt the party into contender status against Carney and be the Liberals’ worst nightmare. A Harper government cabinet veteran, she supports disadvantaged women and girls, fosters a robust business sector, and is knowledgeable on justice and Indigenous matters.
Andrew Scheer – Scheer presently leads the party in Poilievre’s absence from Parliament. His leadership (2017-2019) enabled his party to increase its parliamentary seats and reduce Justin Trudeau’s government to a minority. Many thought he should have had another opportunity to take on the former Liberal leader, but pressure within forced him out. Still young at 46, Scheer presents a calm and likeable presence. He can reshape his image as a key member of Poilievre’s House team this autumn.
Melissa Lantsman – At 41, Lantsman figures to have a long career in politics. Her star has been rising since her election in Thornhill in 2021. Lantsman speaks passionately on behalf of the conservative case for a business-oriented government and strongly defends her Jewish heritage. She is fluently trilingual (English, French, Russian) and represents the best of Canada’s immigrant stories, her parents having come to Canada from the Soviet Union in the 1970s. An openly gay MP, Lantsman favours many traditional positions, including ones related to trans women, agreeing with Poilievre’s comments in 2024 that there should be safe spaces for women free from biological males.
CONTENDERS
Kevin O’Leary – The wealthy business executive has cozied up to U.S. President Donald Trump in recent months, but that has some currency within the Conservative Party. O’Leary, more of a Trump figure than Poilievre, enjoys enough popularity to be considered a threat in any race for the leadership. His vast resources would also be a plus for his candidacy.
Patrick Brown – The former Ontario PC leader and mayor of Brampton has made a remarkable recovery after being forced to resign the party leadership in 2018. Brown possesses enormous skills and plenty of experience. If he runs, he will be a formidable opponent and will have a case to make. His future may still go through Queen’s Park, but at 47, he has lots of time to figure out his next move.
Caroline Mulroney – A Ford government politician and daughter of Brian Mulroney, Caroline Mulroney actively campaigned for and endorsed Poilievre. Seen as a possible successor to Doug Ford, she may have eyes on a bigger prize.
Leslyn Lewis – A previous leadership candidate, Lewis ran a strong campaign in 2022 and continues to have many admirers in the party. Possessing degrees in Environmental Studies from York University and a Concentration in Business and Environment from the Schulich School of Business, Lewis also earned a Juris Doctorate from Osgoode Hall Law School and a PhD in Law from Osgoode Hall Law School. Lewis brings a variety of skills and experience to a leadership contest.
Michelle Rempel Garner – Active on social media, Rempel Garner speaks her mind forthrightly. A westerner by birth and education, she has represented her riding in Calgary since 2011. Only 45 years of age, she has a bright future in the Conservative Party and may be ready to step out on the big stage. She could emerge as a compromise candidate in a tight race.
DARK HORSES
Jamil Jivani – A relative newcomer, having won a by-election in 2024, Jivani speaks with passion for a strong conservative government. He has faced off against Ford, calling Ford’s role in the 2025 election cowardly. Jivoni represents the new Conservative party that Poilievre has tried to appeal to. He would be unlikely to challenge Poilievre.
Danielle Smith – If the conditions were right, Smith could enter a leadership race to draw attention to Alberta’s concerns. It would be quite a shocker if she were to win, but she could have a significant influence on the eventual outcome.
Doug Ford – While the Premier of Ontario thinks he could be the prime minister, his betrayal of the party in 2025 on so many fronts has probably ended those hopes. He’s too powerful to dismiss, due to his strong base of support. He did himself significant damage within the federal party but could affect a race if he were to enter it.
Michael Chong – The long-time MP (first elected in 2004), Mr. Chong has a beautiful family, including a wife (married in 2002) and three sons. Chong has extensive experience in government and leadership positions within the Conservative caucus. Chong’s relatively moderate conservative views hinder his campaign in a party that has become more right-leaning.
LONG SHOTS
Stephen Harper – Canada’s 23rd Prime Minister would be a long shot only because the chances of him running are small. If Harper ran at age 66, he would still be a favourite in this crowd of contenders. There are no credible reasons to believe the former prime minister has any intentions of returning to public life beyond his role as elder statesman.
John Baird – A right-wing favourite and one of the few conservative politicians respected by the mainstream media, Baird retired from politics in 2015 and has remained true to his promise of never running for leadership. Still, at 56, Baird remains an attractive possibility and represents the “true blue” interests of the party.
Scott Moe – The premier of Saskatchewan since 2018, Moe has a strong conservative record. He could combine Western and Central Canadian support to become a compromise candidate in a multi-ballot convention. His commitment to resource development on all levels could make him a candidate many turn to in the late stages of a stalemated contest.
Wayne Gretzky – At age 63, Gretzky does not emanate youth, but he reminds many of their youth. Admired by many on the right for ignoring the pressure to lean left in the sports entertainment world, Gretzky’s ties to Trump may be more baggage than the strategists would like. In any case, the Great One shouldn’t be underestimated.
Dave Redekop is a retired elementary resource teacher who worked part-time at the St. Catharines Courthouse as a Registrar until being appointed Executive Director at Redeemer Bible Church in October 2023. He has worked on political campaigns since high school and attended university in South Carolina for five years, earning a Master’s in American History with a specialization in Civil Rights. Dave loves reading biographies.
