Parliament returned this week, with the Carney government promising legislation that reflects its rightward tilt under the prime minister’s leadership. Holding enough seats to claim a healthy minority, Carney still requires one of the other parties to support him and his caucus, especially when he finally brings down a budget later in the fall. Who will that partner be? After last week’s (Sept. 11) flurry of announcements, it would be hard to criticize one for thinking Carney’s aim is to confuse and divide his opposition. Alberta’s Conservative premier, Danielle Smith, still short of a pipeline, gushed about the meeting she had with the prime minister.
Web Kinew, the NDP premier of Manitoba, and the government of Quebec also expressed happiness about the news they heard. However, these are initial responses, not yet fully reviewed. As one commentator noted, LNG2 (liquefied natural gas) has many critics, including indigenous groups who are reluctant to approve. The devil will be in the details, but many of these projects contain questions that need answers. Pathways Plus excites Danielle Smith, but it leaves core liberal constituencies anxious. It will not be a message well received within the Liberal caucus, never mind amongst the many who voted Liberal this spring. Other issues demand attention, and identifying which party will support a Liberal party occupying territory on the centre-right deserves discussion.
Prime Minister Mark Carney spoke about austerity when referring to the upcoming budget and has indicated a flexible position on climate policy. Support from the Bloc may become more questionable if the government cuts culture programs or reduces its emphasis on regulating environmental legislation. As for the NDP, the budget being bandied about offers them nothing. That leaves Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives. Strange, but philosophically, Carney has driven the Liberals onto the Conservatives’ front lawn. Poilievre, still facing a leadership review in January, is in no position to want to defeat the government. He does, however, have an opportunity to move Carney’s party further right, wring out concessions that Liberals will have no choice but to surrender, and potentially weaken Carney for future fights. The risk, of course, lies in the reality that good policy will reap rewards for the government of the day, not the party that has supported it. Poilievre and his team face some hard choices in the weeks ahead as the government looks to negotiate a deal for Conservative support in the House. The Conservatives will cave, but how much internal strife will Carney create before he gets the votes needed to pass his budget? How much common ground Poilievre and Carney can find will test their leadership internally. With strong approval ratings, Carney has more leverage. Where would the Liberals be without him, and what would happen to them without him? Poilievre faces a tougher road. Some in his party are already questioning his leadership. He must win arguments for the conservative cause while preventing the Liberals from stealing his ideas without attribution. The NDP know this rope-a-dope well and has often come out on the short end.
The major issues that will be debated in the House of Commons include a trade deal with the United States, bail legislation (something the Conservatives have been after for a long time), an “austerity” budget, climate change mandates, and managing the public service unions. In order, these matters will upend Carney and play to Poilievre’s advantage unless Carney passes legislation to address each one circumspectly. On the other hand, if Carney prioritizes each of these issues and voters sense a heavy-handedness or expediency about it, then polls could begin to turn against the prime minister quickly. A quick summary of each may be helpful:
U.S. Trade Deal
Canada’s economy cannot thrive without a trade deal with the United States. Regardless of how pugnacious or obnoxious many Canadians see Trump, he holds the presidency and will do so until early 2029. Carney has to figure out how to make a deal. This won’t please many of his supporters, but a struggling economy hurts Canada. With his tail between his legs, Carney will come back to Trump eventually and ask him to negotiate something that Canadians can live with. It will be a humbling and inevitable moment for Canada and its prime minister.
Bail Legislation
Appealing to concerns about crime and repeat offenders committing violent acts while out on bail, the Conservatives plan to push a reform called the “Jail Not Bail Act” as part of their fall agenda. The Liberals have also promised to address concerns about leaky bail legislation, which allows too many criminals back on the streets. The Conservatives hope to use a private member’s bill of Arpan Khanna to unwind parts of the last Liberal government’s Bill C-75, which introduced what’s called a “principle of restraint” requiring judges (to) release some people charged with a crime on bail at the “earliest reasonable opportunity” and with the “least onerous conditions.” Poilievre would simply like judges to consider a person’s history before releasing them to the public.
Fall Budget
Carney has clearly signalled that he will make cuts. He will not receive support from the progressive parties to make any. Poilievre will help him out, but this will affect spending on pet projects the Liberals hold dear. Carney will suffer losses on his left flank, but whether he can convince enough centre Tories to stick with him remains unclear. Both sides could suffer from the cuts, but one is likely to gain. Poilievre faces danger if he does not make a deal with Carney. His party does not want an election, nor do Canadians. They’re hoping he works with the government, but he may not get credit.
Climate Change Mandates
Carney finds himself between a rock and a hard place on this issue. Poilievre will not allow him to apply new taxes on gas-powered vehicles without a Carbon Tax 2.0 debate. Carney knows he will get the support to proceed, but inflated gas prices don’t thrill Canadians. This one could redound to Poilievre’s advantage and may trip up Carney and his party if they underplay the feelings Canadians have on this subject.
Public Sector Unions
Canadians have grown weary of government workers and their demands. The shrill voice of entitlement, expectation, and privilege bothers Canadians who work hard in the private sector to make ends meet. The unwillingness to return to work, the threats of work-to-rule, and disruptive strikes have worn out the goodwill of many Canadians. Carney had better get a handle on this one early or Poilievre will roast him like a chestnut on Christmas Eve.
How these issues affect Canada’s parliament in the months to come will decide upon this government’s success and the future of the two leaders in the crosshairs.
Dave Redekop is a retired elementary resource teacher who worked part-time at the St. Catharines Courthouse as a Registrar until being appointed Executive Director at Redeemer Bible Church in October 2023. He has worked on political campaigns since high school and attended university in South Carolina for five years, earning a Master’s in American History with a specialization in Civil Rights. Dave loves reading biographies.
